The record
One call per offense per game. Each is written before kickoff and graded from play-by-play once the week is charted. A call that was not on the record in time is never added afterward.
Season to date, Week 4.
How a call is graded
Each call names one slice of the game for one offense. It hits if that offense’s EPA per play on the slice, in that game, is at or above the bar: the league average for the slice through the week before. Fewer than 8 plays on the slice voids the call. The same statement is checked for every slice the engine did not pick, so the calls can be compared with the ones it passed over. A call made on a quarterback who is then ruled out is scratched before kickoff, in public, and not graded.
On the 2025 season, walked forward week by week, the engine's first-choice slice cleared its bar 55.2% of the time. The slices it passed over cleared theirs 51.2% of the time, across 375 offense-games (p = 0.079). That difference is not distinguishable from chance, so no edge is claimed.
A review then tightened the rule for which numbers count as signal, and the test was registered and run again under the rule now in use: 55.3% against 51.5% across 356 offense-games (p = 0.106). The two runs agree.
Week 4 calls
28 calls. Grades are added once the week is final and charted; 2 scratched before kickoff.
The older fantasy record is on the receipts page. Everything tested and found wanting, including claims of our own, is on what doesn’t work.