Top Performer

Falcons at Saints, Week 4

ATL

Falcons

1-2, on the road

63Offense89Defense

NO

Saints

1-2, at home

80Offense68Defense
Week 4Mon 8:15 PM ETNO −1.5Total 47.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Tommy Rees
Defense called by Jeff Ulbrich
Falcons team sheet
Offense called by Kellen Moore
Defense called by Brandon Staley
Saints team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)

Falcons
+0.07

EPA per play, 4th of 32, on 44 plays

Saints
49%

of runs against them, 10th of 32; +0.12 allowed

What should carry: 0.01 EPA per play in the Falcons’ favor, on about 46% of runs.

Targets to wide receivers

Saints
+0.52

EPA per play, 6th of 32, on 67 plays

Falcons
63%

of throws against them, 10th of 32; +0.23 allowed

What should carry: 0.04 EPA per play in the Saints’ favor, on about 57% of throws.

When the Falcons have the ball

Tommy Rees calling plays against Brandon Staley’s defense.

59ATL
PassingSaints by 13Pass defense
72NO
93ATL
RushingFalcons by 26Run defense
67NO
82ATL
ProtectionFalcons by 6Pass rush
76NO
81ATL
Explosive playsSaints by 3Explosives allowed
84NO
99ATL
Red zoneFalcons by 15Red-zone defense
84NO

How Tommy Rees attacks

Tommy Rees calls the plays for the Falcons offense. The Falcons drop back to pass on 48% of snaps, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 60%. They throw deep on 5% of throws, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 12%. They throw a screen on 18% of dropbacks, 2nd most; the league average is 8%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Falcons offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On runs into a light box, 0.01 EPA per play is expected in the Falcons' favor, on about 46% of runs. The Falcons have averaged +0.07 EPA per play there so far (4th of 32, 44 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On runs after pre-snap motion, 0.01 EPA per play is expected in the Falcons' favor, on about 65% of runs.

How the Saints defense has been beaten so far

Brandon Staley calls the Saints defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Saints have allowed +0.54 EPA per play on throws to tight ends, 29th of 32, on 33 plays. They have allowed +0.11 EPA per play on runs to the right, 29th of 32, on 31 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Saints have an edge of their own. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.15 EPA per play is expected in the Saints' favor, on about 69% of dropbacks. The Saints have pressured the quarterback on 22% of dropbacks, 18th of 32. Chase Young leads the Saints pass rush: 6 pressures, 3.5 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)Not graded yet

The Falcons will be at or above −0.08 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 33 hours before kickoff.

Where the Falcons throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Falcons spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Saints position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yardsfewest in the NFLintermediate, 10-1926th of 32short, 0-925th of 32behind the line81Safeties17% of targets86Linebackers31% of targets78Cornerbacks48% of targets80Edge rushers68Interior line

Michael Penix Jr. with the ball

Time to throw2.27s0.57 seconds quicker than the league average of 2.84, over 1 games and 25 attempts.
Intended air yards7.0How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+6.0%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Tommy Rees calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Drops back to pass48%
of snaps, fewest in the NFLleague 60%
Throws deep (20+)5%
of throws, fewest in the NFLleague 12%
Screens18%
of dropbacks, 2nd mostleague 8%
Targets running backs25%
of throws, 4th mostleague 18%
Play-action18%
of dropbacks, 5th fewestleague 25%

What Brandon Staley calls

Blitzes30%
of dropbacks, 16th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run4%
of runs, 25th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)49%
of runs, 10th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Saints

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Jared Goff (DET)2.66s2.92s in his other games. 39 attempts.
Week 2, Lamar Jackson (BAL)3.09s3.17s in his other games. 31 attempts.
Week 3, Kirk Cousins (LV)2.69s2.88s in his other games. 33 attempts.

Where the Falcons should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)0.01EPA per play expected in the Falcons’ favor, on about 46% of runs. Falcons +0.07 per play so far (4th of 32, 44 plays); Saints have allowed +0.12.
Runs off motion0.01EPA per play expected in the Falcons’ favor, on about 65% of runs. Falcons −0.02 per play so far (8th of 32, 68 plays); Saints have allowed +0.06.
Runs off tackle0.01EPA per play expected in the Falcons’ favor, on about 25% of runs. Falcons +0.09 per play so far (5th of 32, 28 plays); Saints have allowed −0.04.
Play-action0.01EPA per play expected in the Falcons’ favor, on about 23% of dropbacks. Falcons +0.17 per play so far (13th of 32, 16 plays); Saints have allowed −0.04.

Where the Saints should get stops

Against a four-man rush or fewer0.15EPA per play expected in the Saints’ favor, on about 69% of dropbacks. Falcons −0.58 per play so far (last in the NFL, 58 plays); Saints have allowed +0.07.
Outside the numbers0.04EPA per play expected in the Saints’ favor, on about 80% of throws. Falcons −0.03 per play so far (26th of 32, 63 plays); Saints have allowed +0.23.
Targets to wide receivers0.05EPA per play expected in the Saints’ favor, on about 57% of throws. Falcons −0.10 per play so far (last in the NFL, 42 plays); Saints have allowed +0.20.

How the Saints defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Targets to tight ends+0.54EPA allowed per play, 29th of 32, on 33 plays. Opponents went there on 34% of throws (most in the NFL). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs right+0.11EPA allowed per play, 29th of 32, on 31 plays. Opponents went there on 42% of runs (5th most). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)+0.12EPA allowed per play, 28th of 32, on 36 plays. Opponents went there on 49% of runs (10th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Saints defenders to know

99
Chase Young
Getting home most
6 pressures, 3.5 sacks
1
Kool-Aid McKinstry
Most yards allowed in coverage
10 of 20 for 149 yards
21
Justin Reid
Most missed tackles
4 missed, 15 made

When the Saints have the ball

Kellen Moore calling plays against Jeff Ulbrich’s defense.

82ATL
Pass defenseFalcons by 5Passing
77NO
94ATL
Run defenseFalcons by 9Rushing
85NO
76ATL
Pass rushSaints by 8Protection
84NO
91ATL
Explosives allowedFalcons by 20Explosive plays
71NO
94ATL
Red-zone defenseEvenRed zone
94NO

How Kellen Moore attacks

Kellen Moore calls the plays for the Saints offense. The Saints throw between the numbers on 11% of throws, 2nd fewest; the league average is 21%. They use play-action on 16% of dropbacks, 3rd fewest; the league average is 25%. They throw a screen on 3% of dropbacks, 3rd fewest; the league average is 8%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Saints offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On throws to wide receivers, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Saints' favor, on about 57% of throws. The Saints have averaged +0.52 EPA per play there so far (6th of 32, 67 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws outside the numbers, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Saints' favor, on about 83% of throws.

How the Falcons defense has been beaten so far

Jeff Ulbrich calls the Falcons defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Falcons have allowed +0.86 EPA per play on throws of intermediate depth, 27th of 32, on 18 plays. They have allowed +0.47 EPA per play on third-and-long dropbacks, 27th of 32, on 17 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Falcons have an edge of their own. On passes after pre-snap motion, 0.03 EPA per play is expected in the Falcons' favor, on about 62% of dropbacks. The Falcons have pressured the quarterback on 25% of dropbacks, 10th of 32. Cameron Thomas leads the Falcons pass rush: 7 pressures, 1.5 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Targets to wide receiversNot graded yet

The Saints will be at or above +0.27 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 33 hours before kickoff.

Where the Saints throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Saints spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Falcons position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards18th of 32intermediate, 10-1920th of 32short, 0-98th of 32behind the line82Safeties23% of targets82Linebackers22% of targets82Cornerbacks52% of targets93Edge rushers96Interior line

Tyler Shough with the ball

Time to throw2.66s0.18 seconds quicker than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 132 attempts.
Intended air yards7.6How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+3.5%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Kellen Moore calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Throws between the numbers11%
of throws, 2nd fewestleague 21%
Play-action16%
of dropbacks, 3rd fewestleague 25%
Screens3%
of dropbacks, 3rd fewestleague 8%
Drops back from under center14%
of dropbacks, 4th fewestleague 22%
Runs to the edge13%
of runs, 27th of 32league 21%

What Jeff Ulbrich calls

Blitzes21%
of dropbacks, 27th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run4%
of runs, 24th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)53%
of runs, 8th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Falcons

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Aaron Rodgers (PIT)2.95s2.86s in his other games. 40 attempts.
Week 2, Bryce Young (CAR)2.94s3.06s in his other games. 36 attempts.
Week 3, Jordan Love (GB)2.54s2.45s in his other games. 53 attempts.

Where the Saints should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Targets to wide receivers0.04EPA per play expected in the Saints’ favor, on about 57% of throws. Saints +0.52 per play so far (6th of 32, 67 plays); Falcons have allowed +0.23.
Outside the numbers0.02EPA per play expected in the Saints’ favor, on about 83% of throws. Saints +0.23 per play so far (11th of 32, 116 plays); Falcons have allowed −0.02.
Runs up the middle0.02EPA per play expected in the Saints’ favor, on about 33% of runs. Saints +0.12 per play so far (7th of 32, 30 plays); Falcons have allowed −0.07.
Dropback from under center0.04EPA per play expected in the Saints’ favor, on about 17% of dropbacks. Saints +0.40 per play so far (5th of 32, 21 plays); Falcons have allowed +0.10.

Where the Falcons should get stops

Passing off motion0.03EPA per play expected in the Falcons’ favor, on about 62% of dropbacks. Saints −0.04 per play so far (24th of 32, 95 plays); Falcons have allowed −0.09.
Runs off tackle0.03EPA per play expected in the Falcons’ favor, on about 24% of runs. Saints −0.28 per play so far (28th of 32, 18 plays); Falcons have allowed −0.42.
Targets to running backs0.04EPA per play expected in the Falcons’ favor, on about 19% of throws. Saints −0.27 per play so far (27th of 32, 25 plays); Falcons have allowed −0.29.

How the Falcons defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Intermediate (10-19)+0.86EPA allowed per play, 27th of 32, on 18 plays. Opponents went there on 14% of throws (fewest in the NFL). History says a result like this does not carry.
Third and 7++0.47EPA allowed per play, 27th of 32, on 17 plays. Opponents went there on 13% of dropbacks (24th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Play-action+0.34EPA allowed per play, 26th of 32, on 27 plays. Opponents went there on 20% of dropbacks (5th fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.

Falcons defenders to know

99
Cameron Thomas
Getting home most
7 pressures, 1.5 sacks
21
Mike Hughes
Most yards allowed in coverage
13 of 21 for 221 yards
Lineups and injuries

Falcons

Offense

  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.
  2. WRDrake London
  3. LTJake Matthews
  4. LGMatthew Bergeron
  5. CRyan Neuzil
  6. RGChris Lindstrom
  7. RTJawaan Taylor
  8. TEKyle Pitts Sr.
  9. RBBijan Robinson
  10. WRJahan Dotson
  11. WROlamide Zaccheaus

Defense

  1. LDELaCale London
  2. NTGervon Dexter Sr.
  3. RDEBrandon Dorlus
  4. WLBZa'Darius Smith
  5. LILBKendal Daniels
  6. RILBDivine Deablo questionable
  7. SLBSamson Ebukam questionable
  8. LCBC.J. Henderson
  9. SSJessie Bates III
  10. FSXavier Watts
  11. RCBMike Hughes
  12. NBBilly Bowman Jr.

Out or doubtful: nobody listed

Questionable: Samson Ebukam (DE, hamstring), Divine Deablo (LB, hamstring), Yasir Abdullah (LB, illness)

Saints

Offense

  1. QBTyler Shough
  2. WRChris Olave
  3. LTAsim Richards
  4. LGDavid Edwards
  5. CErik McCoy
  6. RGCesar Ruiz
  7. RTTaliese Fuaga
  8. TEJuwan Johnson
  9. RBAlvin Kamara
  10. WRDevaughn Vele
  11. WRBryce Lance

Defense

  1. LDECameron Jordan
  2. NTNathan Shepherd
  3. RDEVernon Broughton
  4. WLBCarl Granderson out (next up: Anfernee Jennings)
  5. LILBKaden Elliss out (next up: Isaiah Stalbird)
  6. RILBPete Werner questionable
  7. SLBChase Young
  8. LCBKool-Aid McKinstry
  9. SSJustin Reid
  10. FSJulian Blackmon
  11. RCBQuincy Riley
  12. NBJonas Sanker

Out or doubtful: Kaden Elliss (LB, calf), Carl Granderson (LB, ankle), Anfernee Jennings (LB, knee)

Questionable: Noah Fant (TE, abdomen), Pete Werner (LB, shoulder)

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

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All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.