Top Performer

Dolphins at Vikings, Week 4

MIA

Dolphins

0-3, on the road

65Offense62Defense

MIN

Vikings

3-0, at home

67Offense99Defense
Week 4Sun 4:05 PM ETMIN −10Total 38.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Bobby Slowik
Defense called by Jeff Hafley
Dolphins team sheet
Offense called by Kevin O'Connell
Defense called by Brian Flores
Vikings team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Quarterback out of the pocket

Dolphins
+0.08

EPA per play, 12th of 31, on 24 plays

Vikings
20%

of dropbacks against them, 13th of 32; −0.34 allowed

What should carry: 0.02 EPA per play in the Dolphins’ favor, on about 21% of dropbacks.

Play-action

Vikings
+0.29

EPA per play, 9th of 32, on 26 plays

Dolphins
42%

of dropbacks against them, most in the NFL; +0.92 allowed

What should carry: 0.03 EPA per play in the Vikings’ favor, on about 29% of dropbacks.

When the Dolphins have the ball

Bobby Slowik calling plays against Brian Flores’s defense.

72MIA
PassingVikings by 24Pass defense
96MIN
62MIA
RushingVikings by 36Run defense
98MIN
64MIA
ProtectionVikings by 35Pass rush
99MIN
86MIA
Explosive playsDolphins by 10Explosives allowed
76MIN
85MIA
Red zoneVikings by 14Red-zone defense
99MIN

How Bobby Slowik attacks

Bobby Slowik calls the plays for the Dolphins offense. The Dolphins use pre-snap motion on 82% of dropbacks, most in the NFL; the league average is 57%. They throw short on 35% of throws, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 48%. They throw deep on 24% of throws, most in the NFL; the league average is 12%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Dolphins offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On throws from outside the pocket, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Dolphins' favor, on about 21% of dropbacks. The Dolphins have averaged +0.08 EPA per play there so far (12th of 31, 24 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On dropbacks from under center, 0.01 EPA per play is expected in the Dolphins' favor, on about 20% of dropbacks.

How the Vikings defense has been beaten so far

Brian Flores calls the Vikings defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Vikings have allowed +0.09 EPA per play on throws behind the line of scrimmage, 31st of 32, on 14 plays. They have allowed +0.26 EPA per play on dropbacks from under center, 21st of 32, on 27 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Vikings have an edge of their own. On passes after pre-snap motion, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Vikings' favor, on about 71% of dropbacks. The Vikings have pressured the quarterback on 39% of dropbacks, best in the NFL. Dallas Turner leads the Vikings pass rush: 19 pressures, 3.5 sacks. Caleb Douglas is the Dolphins starting wide receiver, listed as out (ankle). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Quarterback out of the pocketNot graded yet

The Dolphins will be at or above −0.03 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 5 hours before kickoff.

Where the Dolphins throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Dolphins spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Vikings position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yardsmost in the NFLintermediate, 10-1927th of 32short, 0-9fewest in the NFLbehind the line78Safeties28% of targets83Linebackers15% of targets92Cornerbacks48% of targets99Edge rushers81Interior line

Malik Willis with the ball

Time to throw2.93s0.08 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 86 attempts.
Intended air yards10.3How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected−2.7%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Bobby Slowik calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Motion before the throw82%
of dropbacks, most in the NFLleague 57%
Throws short (0-9 yards)35%
of throws, fewest in the NFLleague 48%
Throws deep (20+)24%
of throws, most in the NFLleague 12%
Runs off tackle15%
of runs, 3rd fewestleague 24%
Screens12%
of dropbacks, 4th mostleague 8%

What Brian Flores calls

Blitzes73%
of dropbacks, most in the NFLleague 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run9%
of runs, 15th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)42%
of runs, 16th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Vikings

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Jordan Love (GB)2.56s2.45s in his other games. 42 attempts.
Week 2, Caleb Williams (CHI)3.71s3.16s in his other games. 26 attempts.
Week 3, Baker Mayfield (TB)3.08s2.94s in his other games. 34 attempts.

Where the Dolphins should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Quarterback out of the pocket0.02EPA per play expected in the Dolphins’ favor, on about 21% of dropbacks. Dolphins +0.08 per play so far (12th of 31, 24 plays); Vikings have allowed −0.34.
Dropback from under center0.01EPA per play expected in the Dolphins’ favor, on about 20% of dropbacks. Dolphins +0.19 per play so far (14th of 32, 21 plays); Vikings have allowed +0.26.
Targets to running backs0.01EPA per play expected in the Dolphins’ favor, on about 19% of throws. Dolphins +0.05 per play so far (15th of 32, 18 plays); Vikings have allowed −0.05.

Where the Vikings should get stops

Passing off motion0.04EPA per play expected in the Vikings’ favor, on about 71% of dropbacks. Dolphins −0.07 per play so far (26th of 32, 88 plays); Vikings have allowed +0.11.
Targets to wide receivers0.03EPA per play expected in the Vikings’ favor, on about 61% of throws. Dolphins +0.05 per play so far (27th of 32, 53 plays); Vikings have allowed +0.09.
Outside the numbers0.02EPA per play expected in the Vikings’ favor, on about 78% of throws. Dolphins +0.06 per play so far (19th of 32, 65 plays); Vikings have allowed +0.06.

How the Vikings defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Behind the line+0.09EPA allowed per play, 31st of 32, on 14 plays. Opponents went there on 12% of throws (5th fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Dropback from under center+0.26EPA allowed per play, 21st of 32, on 27 plays. Opponents went there on 20% of dropbacks (18th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Play-action+0.16EPA allowed per play, 19th of 32, on 24 plays. Opponents went there on 18% of dropbacks (fewest in the NFL). History says a result like this does not carry.

Vikings defenders to know

15
Dallas Turner
Getting home most
19 pressures, 3.5 sacks
44
Josh Metellus
Most yards allowed in coverage
10 of 19 for 182 yards
55
Eric Wilson
Most missed tackles
3 missed, 20 made

When the Vikings have the ball

Kevin O'Connell calling plays against Jeff Hafley’s defense.

59MIA
Pass defenseVikings by 8Passing
67MIN
89MIA
Run defenseDolphins by 18Rushing
71MIN
62MIA
Pass rushVikings by 7Protection
69MIN
67MIA
Explosives allowedDolphins by 4Explosive plays
63MIN
80MIA
Red-zone defenseVikings by 2Red zone
82MIN

How Kevin O'Connell attacks

Kevin O'Connell calls the plays for the Vikings offense. The Vikings throw short on 38% of throws, 3rd fewest; the league average is 48%. They throw a screen on 13% of dropbacks, 3rd most; the league average is 8%. They drop back to pass on 54% of snaps, 5th fewest; the league average is 60%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Vikings offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On play-action passes, 0.03 EPA per play is expected in the Vikings' favor, on about 29% of dropbacks. The Vikings have averaged +0.29 EPA per play there so far (9th of 32, 26 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws to tight ends, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Vikings' favor, on about 25% of throws.

How the Dolphins defense has been beaten so far

Jeff Hafley calls the Dolphins defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Dolphins have allowed +1.02 EPA per play on throws of intermediate depth, last in the NFL, on 17 plays. They have allowed +0.92 EPA per play on play-action passes, last in the NFL, on 34 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Dolphins have an edge of their own. On throws outside the numbers, 0.05 EPA per play is expected in the Dolphins' favor, on about 76% of throws. The Dolphins have pressured the quarterback on 17% of dropbacks, 28th of 32. Chop Robinson leads the Dolphins pass rush: 4 pressures, 0 sacks. Justin Jefferson is the Vikings starting wide receiver, listed as out (ankle). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Play-actionNot graded yet

The Vikings will be at or above +0.11 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 5 hours before kickoff.

Where the Vikings throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Vikings spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Dolphins position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards9th of 32intermediate, 10-1921st of 32short, 0-93rd fewestbehind the line74Safeties24% of targets71Linebackers31% of targets66Cornerbacks37% of targets63Edge rushers72Interior line

Kyler Murray with the ball

Time to throw2.86sAbout league average of 2.84, over 1 games and 29 attempts.
Intended air yards10.0How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected−0.7%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Kevin O'Connell calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Throws short (0-9 yards)38%
of throws, 3rd fewestleague 48%
Screens13%
of dropbacks, 3rd mostleague 8%
Drops back to pass54%
of snaps, 5th fewestleague 60%
Play-action30%
of dropbacks, 7th of 32league 25%
Throws between the numbers26%
of throws, 7th of 32league 21%

What Jeff Hafley calls

Blitzes32%
of dropbacks, 12th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run18%
of runs, 6th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)29%
of runs, 3rd fewestleague 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Dolphins

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Kirk Cousins (LV)2.90s2.77s in his other games. 30 attempts.
Week 2, Brock Purdy (SF)3.04s2.93s in his other games. 22 attempts.
Week 3, Patrick Mahomes (KC)2.61s2.60s in his other games. 24 attempts.

Where the Vikings should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Play-action0.03EPA per play expected in the Vikings’ favor, on about 29% of dropbacks. Vikings +0.29 per play so far (9th of 32, 26 plays); Dolphins have allowed +0.92.
Targets to tight ends0.02EPA per play expected in the Vikings’ favor, on about 25% of throws. Vikings +0.38 per play so far (11th of 32, 18 plays); Dolphins have allowed +0.83.
Runs off tackle0.01EPA per play expected in the Vikings’ favor, on about 22% of runs. Vikings −0.09 per play so far (15th of 32, 16 plays); Dolphins have allowed 0.00.
Deep (20+)0.02EPA per play expected in the Vikings’ favor, on about 12% of throws. Vikings +0.60 per play so far (10th of 24, 11 plays); Dolphins have allowed +0.37.

Where the Dolphins should get stops

Outside the numbers0.05EPA per play expected in the Dolphins’ favor, on about 76% of throws. Vikings −0.08 per play so far (28th of 32, 54 plays); Dolphins have allowed +0.50.
Targets to wide receivers0.03EPA per play expected in the Dolphins’ favor, on about 58% of throws. Vikings +0.07 per play so far (25th of 32, 39 plays); Dolphins have allowed +0.33.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.02EPA per play expected in the Dolphins’ favor, on about 66% of dropbacks. Vikings 0.00 per play so far (23rd of 32, 48 plays); Dolphins have allowed +0.46.

How the Dolphins defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Intermediate (10-19)+1.02EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 17 plays. Opponents went there on 22% of throws (16th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Play-action+0.92EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 34 plays. Opponents went there on 42% of dropbacks (most in the NFL). History says a result like this does not carry.
Targets to running backs+0.87EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 15 plays. Opponents went there on 21% of throws (10th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Dolphins defenders to know

44
Chop Robinson
Getting home most
4 pressures, 0 sacks
16
Michael Taaffe
Most yards allowed in coverage
7 of 11 for 154 yards
3
Chris Johnson
Most missed tackles
3 missed, 20 made
Lineups and injuries

Dolphins

Offense

  1. QBMalik Willis
  2. WRMalik Washington
  3. LTPatrick Paul
  4. LGKadyn Proctor
  5. CAaron Brewer
  6. RGJonah Savaiinaea
  7. RTAustin Jackson
  8. TEGreg Dulcich
  9. RBJaylen Wright
  10. FBDJ Herman
  11. WRCaleb Douglas out (next up: Jalen Tolbert)
  12. WRChris Bell

Defense

  1. LDEChop Robinson
  2. LDTJordan Phillips
  3. RDTZach Sieler
  4. RDEJosh Uche
  5. WLBJordyn Brooks
  6. MLBJacob Rodriguez
  7. SLBWillie Gay Jr.
  8. LCBJason Marshall Jr.
  9. SSMichael Taaffe
  10. FSZayne Anderson
  11. RCBJuJu Brents
  12. NBChris Johnson

Out or doubtful: Rob Beal Jr. (LB, hamstring), Storm Duck (CB, knee), Caleb Douglas (WR, ankle)

Questionable: nobody listed

Vikings

Offense

  1. QBKyler Murray
  2. WRJustin Jefferson out (next up: Tai Felton)
  3. LTChristian Darrisaw
  4. LGDonovan Jackson
  5. CBlake Brandel
  6. RGWill Fries
  7. RTBrian O'Neill
  8. TET.J. Hockenson
  9. RBAaron Jones Sr.
  10. FBMax Bredeson
  11. WRJordan Addison
  12. WRJauan Jennings

Defense

  1. LDELevi Drake Rodriguez
  2. NTCaleb Banks
  3. RDEJalen Redmond
  4. WLBAndrew Van Ginkel
  5. LILBEric Wilson
  6. RILBBlake Cashman
  7. SLBDallas Turner
  8. LCBIsaiah Rodgers
  9. SSJoshua Metellus
  10. FSHarrison Smith
  11. RCBJames Pierre
  12. NBByron Murphy Jr.

Out or doubtful: Justin Jefferson (WR, ankle), Charles Demmings (CB, hamstring), Brett Thorson (P, hamstring)

Questionable: nobody listed

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

top fivetop thirdmiddlebottom third

All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.