Top Performer

Titans at Ravens, Week 4

TEN

Titans

0-3, on the road

73Offense74Defense

BAL

Ravens

2-1, at home

96Offense77Defense
Week 4Sun 1:00 PM ETBAL −11.5Total 42.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Brian Daboll
Defense called by Robert Saleh
Titans team sheet
Offense called by Declan Doyle
Defense called by Jesse Minter
Ravens team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)

Titans
+0.08

EPA per play, 3rd of 32, on 28 plays

Ravens
64%

of runs against them, 2nd most; −0.09 allowed

What should carry: 0.02 EPA per play in the Titans’ favor, on about 50% of runs.

Outside the numbers

Ravens
+0.46

EPA per play, 2nd of 32, on 49 plays

Titans
82%

of throws against them, 12th of 32; +0.16 allowed

What should carry: 0.07 EPA per play in the Ravens’ favor, on about 77% of throws.

When the Titans have the ball

Brian Daboll calling plays against Jesse Minter’s defense.

68TEN
PassingRavens by 13Pass defense
81BAL
90TEN
RushingTitans by 25Run defense
65BAL
87TEN
ProtectionTitans by 18Pass rush
69BAL
69TEN
Explosive playsRavens by 8Explosives allowed
77BAL
86TEN
Red zoneTitans by 15Red-zone defense
71BAL

How Brian Daboll attacks

Brian Daboll calls the plays for the Titans offense. The Titans run off tackle on 40% of runs, most in the NFL; the league average is 24%. They run to the edge on 10% of runs, 2nd fewest; the league average is 21%. They throw short on 58% of throws, 2nd most; the league average is 48%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Titans offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On runs into a light box, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Titans' favor, on about 50% of runs. The Titans have averaged +0.08 EPA per play there so far (3rd of 32, 28 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On dropbacks against the blitz, 0.01 EPA per play is expected in the Titans' favor, on about 33% of dropbacks.

How the Ravens defense has been beaten so far

Jesse Minter calls the Ravens defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Ravens have allowed +1.08 EPA per play on third-and-long dropbacks, last in the NFL, on 18 plays. They have allowed +0.14 EPA per play on runs inside, last in the NFL, on 31 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Ravens have an edge of their own. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.06 EPA per play is expected in the Ravens' favor, on about 67% of dropbacks. The Ravens have pressured the quarterback on 19% of dropbacks, 25th of 32. Tavius Robinson leads the Ravens pass rush: 6 pressures, 2 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)Not graded yet

The Titans will be at or above −0.08 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Titans throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Titans spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Ravens position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards26th of 32intermediate, 10-1917th of 32short, 0-92nd mostbehind the line63Safeties15% of targets98Linebackers21% of targets83Cornerbacks62% of targets73Edge rushers65Interior line

Cam Ward with the ball

Time to throw2.87sAbout league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 88 attempts.
Intended air yards6.3How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected−1.8%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Brian Daboll calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Runs off tackle40%
of runs, most in the NFLleague 24%
Runs to the edge10%
of runs, 2nd fewestleague 21%
Throws short (0-9 yards)58%
of throws, 2nd mostleague 48%
Motion before the throw42%
of dropbacks, 3rd fewestleague 57%
Drops back from under center15%
of dropbacks, 5th fewestleague 22%

What Jesse Minter calls

Blitzes36%
of dropbacks, 8th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run1%
of runs, 2nd fewestleague 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)64%
of runs, 2nd mostleague 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Ravens

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Daniel Jones (IND)2.84s2.77s in his other games. 31 attempts.
Week 2, Tyler Shough (NO)2.73s2.64s in his other games. 34 attempts.
Week 3, Dak Prescott (DAL)2.67s2.71s in his other games. 40 attempts.

Where the Titans should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)0.02EPA per play expected in the Titans’ favor, on about 50% of runs. Titans +0.08 per play so far (3rd of 32, 28 plays); Ravens have allowed −0.09.
Against the blitz0.01EPA per play expected in the Titans’ favor, on about 33% of dropbacks. Titans +0.13 per play so far (10th of 32, 26 plays); Ravens have allowed −0.11.
Runs up the middle0.01EPA per play expected in the Titans’ favor, on about 26% of runs. Titans +0.04 per play so far (11th of 32, 16 plays); Ravens have allowed +0.21.
Runs off tackle0.01EPA per play expected in the Titans’ favor, on about 31% of runs. Titans −0.24 per play so far (25th of 32, 23 plays); Ravens have allowed −0.07.

Where the Ravens should get stops

Against a four-man rush or fewer0.06EPA per play expected in the Ravens’ favor, on about 67% of dropbacks. Titans −0.19 per play so far (29th of 32, 73 plays); Ravens have allowed +0.09.
Outside the numbers0.04EPA per play expected in the Ravens’ favor, on about 81% of throws. Titans −0.03 per play so far (25th of 32, 76 plays); Ravens have allowed +0.16.
Passing off motion0.06EPA per play expected in the Ravens’ favor, on about 49% of dropbacks. Titans −0.19 per play so far (30th of 32, 42 plays); Ravens have allowed −0.02.

How the Ravens defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Third and 7++1.08EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 18 plays. Opponents went there on 15% of dropbacks (14th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs inside (guard to guard)+0.14EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 31 plays. Opponents went there on 46% of runs (5th fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs from under center+0.08EPA allowed per play, 31st of 32, on 51 plays. Opponents went there on 74% of runs (8th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Ravens defenders to know

95
Tavius Robinson
Getting home most
6 pressures, 2 sacks
44
Marlon Humphrey
Most yards allowed in coverage
15 of 23 for 215 yards
2
Nate Wiggins
Most missed tackles
3 missed, 14 made

When the Ravens have the ball

Declan Doyle calling plays against Robert Saleh’s defense.

73TEN
Pass defenseRavens by 23Passing
96BAL
80TEN
Run defenseRavens by 14Rushing
94BAL
74TEN
Pass rushRavens by 10Protection
84BAL
86TEN
Explosives allowedRavens by 12Explosive plays
98BAL
73TEN
Red-zone defenseRavens by 17Red zone
90BAL

How Declan Doyle attacks

Declan Doyle calls the plays for the Ravens offense. The Ravens run inside on 36% of runs, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 55%. They throw between the numbers on 34% of throws, most in the NFL; the league average is 21%. They target running backs on 11% of throws, 2nd fewest; the league average is 18%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Ravens offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On throws outside the numbers, 0.07 EPA per play is expected in the Ravens' favor, on about 77% of throws. The Ravens have averaged +0.46 EPA per play there so far (2nd of 32, 49 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.06 EPA per play is expected in the Ravens' favor, on about 72% of dropbacks.

How the Titans defense has been beaten so far

Robert Saleh calls the Titans defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Titans have allowed +0.67 EPA per play on dropbacks against the blitz, 31st of 32, on 20 plays. They have allowed +0.59 EPA per play on throws to wide receivers, 30th of 32, on 48 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Titans have an edge of their own. On runs up the middle, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Titans' favor, on about 24% of runs. The Titans have pressured the quarterback on 20% of dropbacks, 24th of 32. Jeffery Simmons leads the Titans pass rush: 6 pressures, 2 sacks. Zay Flowers is the Ravens starting wide receiver, listed as questionable (hamstring). Ronnie Stanley is the Ravens starting left tackle, listed as questionable (toe). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Outside the numbersNot graded yet

The Ravens will be at or above +0.14 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Ravens throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Ravens spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Titans position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards2nd mostintermediate, 10-192nd fewestshort, 0-910th of 32behind the line77Safeties23% of targets92Linebackers34% of targets75Cornerbacks44% of targets72Edge rushers75Interior line

Lamar Jackson with the ball

Time to throw3.14s0.30 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 76 attempts.
Intended air yards10.2How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+6.5%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Declan Doyle calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Runs inside36%
of runs, fewest in the NFLleague 55%
Throws between the numbers34%
of throws, most in the NFLleague 21%
Targets running backs11%
of throws, 2nd fewestleague 18%
Drops back to pass51%
of snaps, 2nd fewestleague 60%
Screens3%
of dropbacks, 2nd fewestleague 8%

What Robert Saleh calls

Blitzes21%
of dropbacks, 5th fewestleague 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run7%
of runs, 18th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)50%
of runs, 9th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Titans

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Geno Smith (NYJ)3.04s2.91s in his other games. 24 attempts.
Week 2, Jalen Hurts (PHI)3.50s3.07s in his other games. 37 attempts.
Week 3, Jameis Winston (NYG)2.55s2.86s in his other games. 22 attempts.

Where the Ravens should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Outside the numbers0.07EPA per play expected in the Ravens’ favor, on about 77% of throws. Ravens +0.46 per play so far (2nd of 32, 49 plays); Titans have allowed +0.16.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.06EPA per play expected in the Ravens’ favor, on about 72% of dropbacks. Ravens +0.35 per play so far (5th of 32, 57 plays); Titans have allowed −0.02.
Targets to wide receivers0.06EPA per play expected in the Ravens’ favor, on about 58% of throws. Ravens +0.65 per play so far (3rd of 32, 41 plays); Titans have allowed +0.59.
Runs off motion0.03EPA per play expected in the Ravens’ favor, on about 64% of runs. Ravens +0.17 per play so far (2nd of 32, 57 plays); Titans have allowed −0.01.

Where the Titans should get stops

Runs up the middle0.04EPA per play expected in the Titans’ favor, on about 24% of runs. Ravens −0.45 per play so far (30th of 32, 10 plays); Titans have allowed −0.13.
Runs off tackle0.00EPA per play expected in the Titans’ favor, on about 25% of runs. Ravens +0.04 per play so far (6th of 32, 26 plays); Titans have allowed −0.13.

How the Titans defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Against the blitz+0.67EPA allowed per play, 31st of 32, on 20 plays. Opponents went there on 21% of dropbacks (5th fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Targets to wide receivers+0.59EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 48 plays. Opponents went there on 62% of throws (14th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Between the numbers+0.66EPA allowed per play, 27th of 32, on 15 plays. Opponents went there on 18% of throws (21st of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Titans defenders to know

98
Jeffery Simmons
Getting home most
6 pressures, 2 sacks
37
Amani Hooker
Most yards allowed in coverage
9 of 12 for 147 yards
Lineups and injuries

Titans

Offense

  1. QBCam Ward
  2. WRCarnell Tate
  3. LTDan Moore Jr.
  4. LGPeter Skoronski
  5. CAustin Schlottmann
  6. RGAtonio Mafi
  7. RTJC Latham
  8. TEGunnar Helm
  9. RBTony Pollard
  10. WRWan'Dale Robinson
  11. WRElic Ayomanor

Defense

  1. LDEJohn Franklin-Myers
  2. LDTJeffery Simmons
  3. RDTJordan Elliott
  4. RDEJermaine Johnson II
  5. WLBCedric Gray
  6. MLBAnthony Hill Jr.
  7. SLBJames Williams Sr.
  8. LCBCor'Dale Flott
  9. SSAmani Hooker
  10. FSKevin Winston Jr. questionable
  11. RCBAlontae Taylor
  12. NBMarcus Harris

Out or doubtful: nobody listed

Questionable: Tyjae Spears (RB, ankle), Kevin Winston Jr. (S, shoulder)

Ravens

Offense

  1. QBLamar Jackson
  2. WRZay Flowers questionable
  3. LTRonnie Stanley questionable
  4. LGJohn Simpson
  5. COlaivavega Ioane
  6. RGAndrew Vorhees
  7. RTRoger Rosengarten
  8. TEMark Andrews
  9. RBDerrick Henry
  10. WRRashod Bateman
  11. WRDevontez Walker

Defense

  1. LDENnamdi Madubuike
  2. NTTravis Jones
  3. RDECalais Campbell
  4. WLBTavius Robinson
  5. LILBRoquan Smith
  6. RILBTeddye Buchanan
  7. SLBTrey Hendrickson out (next up: Mike Green)
  8. LCBNate Wiggins
  9. SSJaylinn Hawkins
  10. FSMalaki Starks
  11. RCBMarlon Humphrey
  12. NBKyle Hamilton

Out or doubtful: Ethan Pocic (C, knee), Trey Hendrickson (LB, finger), Jovaughn Gwyn (C, ankle)

Questionable: Chris Moore (WR, ankle), Ronnie Stanley (T, toe), Zay Flowers (WR, hamstring)

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

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All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.