Top Performer

Jaguars at Bengals, Week 4

JAX

Jaguars

2-1, on the road

94Offense95Defense

CIN

Bengals

2-1, at home

89Offense94Defense
Week 4Sun 1:00 PM ETCIN −2.5Total 51.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Liam Coen
Defense called by Anthony Campanile
Jaguars team sheet
Offense called by Zac Taylor
Defense called by Al Golden
Bengals team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Against a four-man rush or fewer

Jaguars
+0.45

EPA per play, best in the NFL, on 61 plays

Bengals
86%

of dropbacks against them, most in the NFL; +0.03 allowed

What should carry: 0.08 EPA per play in the Jaguars’ favor, on about 77% of dropbacks.

Against a four-man rush or fewer

Bengals
+0.32

EPA per play, 6th of 32, on 77 plays

Jaguars
68%

of dropbacks against them, 20th of 32; +0.19 allowed

What should carry: 0.05 EPA per play in the Bengals’ favor, on about 68% of dropbacks.

When the Jaguars have the ball

Liam Coen calling plays against Al Golden’s defense.

93JAX
PassingJaguars by 2Pass defense
91CIN
98JAX
RushingJaguars by 11Run defense
87CIN
91JAX
ProtectionEvenPass rush
91CIN
89JAX
Explosive playsJaguars by 21Explosives allowed
68CIN
95JAX
Red zoneBengals by 1Red-zone defense
96CIN

How Liam Coen attacks

Liam Coen calls the plays for the Jaguars offense. The Jaguars run to the edge on 35% of runs, most in the NFL; the league average is 21%. They throw to intermediate depth on 36% of throws, most in the NFL; the league average is 22%. They throw short on 38% of throws, 2nd fewest; the league average is 48%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Jaguars offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.08 EPA per play is expected in the Jaguars' favor, on about 77% of dropbacks. The Jaguars have averaged +0.45 EPA per play there so far (best in the NFL, 61 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws to wide receivers, 0.06 EPA per play is expected in the Jaguars' favor, on about 62% of throws.

How the Bengals defense has been beaten so far

Al Golden calls the Bengals defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Bengals have allowed +0.36 EPA per play on short throws, 29th of 32, on 55 plays. They have allowed +0.43 EPA per play on throws to tight ends, 26th of 32, on 30 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Bengals have an edge of their own. On runs off tackle, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Bengals' favor, on about 24% of runs. The Bengals have pressured the quarterback on 26% of dropbacks, 8th of 32. Cashius Howell leads the Bengals pass rush: 7 pressures, 0 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Against a four-man rush or fewerNot graded yet

The Jaguars will be at or above +0.10 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Jaguars throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Jaguars spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Bengals position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards16th of 32intermediate, 10-19most in the NFLshort, 0-92nd fewestbehind the line84Safeties20% of targets68Linebackers29% of targets86Cornerbacks48% of targets94Edge rushers93Interior line

Trevor Lawrence with the ball

Time to throw2.82sAbout league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 81 attempts.
Intended air yards9.4How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+7.1%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Liam Coen calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Runs to the edge35%
of runs, most in the NFLleague 21%
Throws intermediate (10-19)36%
of throws, most in the NFLleague 22%
Throws short (0-9 yards)38%
of throws, 2nd fewestleague 48%
Drops back to pass51%
of snaps, 3rd fewestleague 60%
Runs inside42%
of runs, 4th fewestleague 55%

What Al Golden calls

Blitzes14%
of dropbacks, fewest in the NFLleague 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run6%
of runs, 21st of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)56%
of runs, 7th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Bengals

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Baker Mayfield (TB)2.88s3.03s in his other games. 28 attempts.
Week 2, C.J. Stroud (HOU)2.98s2.97s in his other games. 55 attempts.
Week 3, Aaron Rodgers (PIT)3.19s2.77s in his other games. 34 attempts.

Where the Jaguars should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Against a four-man rush or fewer0.08EPA per play expected in the Jaguars’ favor, on about 77% of dropbacks. Jaguars +0.45 per play so far (best in the NFL, 61 plays); Bengals have allowed +0.03.
Targets to wide receivers0.06EPA per play expected in the Jaguars’ favor, on about 62% of throws. Jaguars +0.70 per play so far (2nd of 32, 51 plays); Bengals have allowed +0.18.
Outside the numbers0.04EPA per play expected in the Jaguars’ favor, on about 79% of throws. Jaguars +0.30 per play so far (9th of 32, 66 plays); Bengals have allowed +0.10.
Passing off motion0.04EPA per play expected in the Jaguars’ favor, on about 54% of dropbacks. Jaguars +0.28 per play so far (6th of 32, 45 plays); Bengals have allowed 0.00.

Where the Bengals should get stops

Runs off tackle0.04EPA per play expected in the Bengals’ favor, on about 24% of runs. Jaguars −0.04 per play so far (11th of 32, 19 plays); Bengals have allowed −0.49.
Targets to running backs0.05EPA per play expected in the Bengals’ favor, on about 17% of throws. Jaguars −0.38 per play so far (29th of 32, 11 plays); Bengals have allowed +0.09.
Targets to tight ends0.03EPA per play expected in the Bengals’ favor, on about 21% of throws. Jaguars 0.00 per play so far (26th of 32, 14 plays); Bengals have allowed +0.43.

How the Bengals defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Short (0-9 air yards)+0.36EPA allowed per play, 29th of 32, on 55 plays. Opponents went there on 48% of throws (16th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Targets to tight ends+0.43EPA allowed per play, 26th of 32, on 30 plays. Opponents went there on 28% of throws (4th most). History says a result like this does not carry.
Dropback from under center+0.35EPA allowed per play, 25th of 32, on 21 plays. Opponents went there on 16% of dropbacks (5th fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.

Bengals defenders to know

55
Cashius Howell
Getting home most
7 pressures, 0 sacks
44
Demetrius Knight
Most yards allowed in coverage
15 of 19 for 181 yards
49
Barrett Carter
Most missed tackles
6 missed, 19 made

When the Bengals have the ball

Zac Taylor calling plays against Anthony Campanile’s defense.

95JAX
Pass defenseJaguars by 13Passing
82CIN
84JAX
Run defenseEvenRushing
84CIN
88JAX
Pass rushJaguars by 14Protection
74CIN
69JAX
Explosives allowedBengals by 22Explosive plays
91CIN
98JAX
Red-zone defenseJaguars by 5Red zone
93CIN

How Zac Taylor attacks

Zac Taylor calls the plays for the Bengals offense. The Bengals line up under center on 12% of dropbacks, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 22%. They run inside on 71% of runs, 2nd most; the league average is 55%. They run off tackle on 16% of runs, 4th fewest; the league average is 24%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Bengals offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.05 EPA per play is expected in the Bengals' favor, on about 68% of dropbacks. The Bengals have averaged +0.32 EPA per play there so far (6th of 32, 77 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws from outside the pocket, 0.07 EPA per play is expected in the Bengals' favor, on about 15% of dropbacks.

How the Jaguars defense has been beaten so far

Anthony Campanile calls the Jaguars defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Jaguars have allowed +0.07 EPA per play on runs after pre-snap motion, 29th of 32, on 34 plays. They have allowed +0.89 EPA per play on deep throws, 23rd of 27, on 14 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Jaguars have an edge of their own. On play-action passes, 0.07 EPA per play is expected in the Jaguars' favor, on about 22% of dropbacks. The Jaguars have pressured the quarterback on 23% of dropbacks, 13th of 32. Josh Hines-Allen leads the Jaguars pass rush: 4 pressures, 1.5 sacks. Dalton Risner is the Bengals starting right guard, listed as questionable (knee). Colbie Young is the Bengals starting wide receiver, listed as out (knee). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Against a four-man rush or fewerNot graded yet

The Bengals will be at or above +0.10 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Bengals throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Bengals spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Jaguars position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards27th of 32intermediate, 10-1918th of 32short, 0-96th of 32behind the line81Safeties13% of targets82Linebackers30% of targets80Cornerbacks53% of targets71Edge rushers79Interior line

Joe Burrow with the ball

Time to throw2.54s0.31 seconds quicker than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 103 attempts.
Intended air yards6.6How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+2.5%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Zac Taylor calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Drops back from under center12%
of dropbacks, fewest in the NFLleague 22%
Runs inside71%
of runs, 2nd mostleague 55%
Runs off tackle16%
of runs, 4th fewestleague 24%
Play-action18%
of dropbacks, 4th fewestleague 25%
Motion before the throw45%
of dropbacks, 5th fewestleague 57%

What Anthony Campanile calls

Blitzes32%
of dropbacks, 13th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run16%
of runs, 10th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)45%
of runs, 14th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Jaguars

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Deshaun Watson (CLE)3.04s2.86s in his other games. 22 attempts.
Week 2, Bo Nix (DEN)2.74s3.01s in his other games. 31 attempts.
Week 3, Drake Maye (NE)3.42s2.87s in his other games. 25 attempts.

Where the Bengals should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Against a four-man rush or fewer0.05EPA per play expected in the Bengals’ favor, on about 68% of dropbacks. Bengals +0.32 per play so far (6th of 32, 77 plays); Jaguars have allowed +0.19.
Quarterback out of the pocket0.07EPA per play expected in the Bengals’ favor, on about 15% of dropbacks. Bengals +0.45 per play so far (3rd of 31, 11 plays); Jaguars have allowed +0.09.
Targets to tight ends0.04EPA per play expected in the Bengals’ favor, on about 22% of throws. Bengals +0.52 per play so far (5th of 32, 21 plays); Jaguars have allowed +0.42.
Targets to wide receivers0.01EPA per play expected in the Bengals’ favor, on about 60% of throws. Bengals +0.32 per play so far (12th of 32, 61 plays); Jaguars have allowed −0.02.

Where the Jaguars should get stops

Play-action0.07EPA per play expected in the Jaguars’ favor, on about 22% of dropbacks. Bengals −0.29 per play so far (29th of 32, 20 plays); Jaguars have allowed −0.12.
Against the blitz0.03EPA per play expected in the Jaguars’ favor, on about 32% of dropbacks. Bengals −0.31 per play so far (28th of 32, 36 plays); Jaguars have allowed −0.75.
Passing off motion0.02EPA per play expected in the Jaguars’ favor, on about 50% of dropbacks. Bengals +0.03 per play so far (21st of 32, 51 plays); Jaguars have allowed +0.20.

How the Jaguars defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Runs off motion+0.07EPA allowed per play, 29th of 32, on 34 plays. Opponents went there on 51% of runs (5th fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Deep (20+)+0.89EPA allowed per play, 23rd of 27, on 14 plays. Opponents went there on 17% of throws (4th most). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs from shotgun or pistol+0.09EPA allowed per play, 27th of 32, on 22 plays. Opponents went there on 33% of runs (10th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Jaguars defenders to know

41
Josh Hines-Allen
Getting home most
4 pressures, 1.5 sacks
1
Montaric Brown
Most yards allowed in coverage
8 of 13 for 167 yards
29
Eric Murray
Most missed tackles
3 missed, 8 made
Lineups and injuries

Jaguars

Offense

  1. QBTrevor Lawrence
  2. WRParker Washington
  3. LTAnton Harrison
  4. LGEmmanuel Pregnon
  5. CRobert Hainsey
  6. RGEzra Cleveland
  7. RTCole Van Lanen
  8. TEBrenton Strange
  9. RBBhayshul Tuten
  10. WRJakobi Meyers
  11. WRBrian Thomas Jr.

Defense

  1. LDETravon Walker
  2. LDTArik Armstead
  3. RDTDaVon Hamilton
  4. RDEJosh Hines-Allen
  5. WLBFoyesade Oluokun
  6. MLBVentrell Miller
  7. SLBDennis Gardeck
  8. LCBTravis Hunter
  9. SSEric Murray
  10. FSAntonio Johnson
  11. RCBMontaric Brown questionable
  12. NBJourdan Lewis

Out or doubtful: nobody listed

Questionable: Montaric Brown (CB, hamstring), Christian Braswell (CB, knee), Albert Regis (DT, elbow)

Bengals

Offense

  1. QBJoe Burrow
  2. WRJa'Marr Chase
  3. LTOrlando Brown Jr.
  4. LGDylan Fairchild
  5. CTed Karras
  6. RGDalton Risner questionable
  7. RTAmarius Mims
  8. TEMike Gesicki
  9. RBChase Brown
  10. WRTee Higgins
  11. WRColbie Young out (next up: Andrei Iosivas)

Defense

  1. LDEBoye Mafe
  2. LDTDexter Lawrence II
  3. RDTJonathan Allen
  4. RDEMyles Murphy
  5. WLBDemetrius Knight Jr.
  6. MLBBarrett Carter
  7. SLBOren Burks
  8. LCBTacario Davis
  9. SSJordan Battle
  10. FSBryan Cook questionable
  11. RCBDJ Turner II
  12. NBDax Hill

Out or doubtful: Kyle Dugger (S, quadricep), Colbie Young (WR, knee)

Questionable: B.J. Hill (DT, achilles), Dalton Risner (G, knee), Bryan Cook (S, ankle), Swayze Bozeman (LB, groin)

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

top fivetop thirdmiddlebottom third

All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.