Top Performer

Packers at Buccaneers, Week 4

GB

Packers

1-2, on the road

68Offense72Defense

TB

Buccaneers

0-3, at home

59Offense91Defense
Week 4Sun 1:00 PM ETGB −3Total 38.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Matt LaFleur
Defense called by Jonathan Gannon
Packers team sheet
Offense called by Zac Robinson
Defense called by Todd Bowles
Buccaneers team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Against a four-man rush or fewer

Packers
+0.19

EPA per play, 12th of 32, on 74 plays

Buccaneers
54%

of dropbacks against them, 3rd fewest; +0.33 allowed

What should carry: 0.02 EPA per play in the Packers’ favor, on about 60% of dropbacks.

Runs off tackle

Buccaneers
+0.04

EPA per play, 7th of 32, on 11 plays

Packers
25%

of runs against them, 15th of 32; −0.08 allowed

What should carry: 0.01 EPA per play in the Buccaneers’ favor, on about 22% of runs.

When the Packers have the ball

Matt LaFleur calling plays against Todd Bowles’s defense.

74GB
PassingBuccaneers by 10Pass defense
84TB
59GB
RushingBuccaneers by 34Run defense
93TB
70GB
ProtectionBuccaneers by 3Pass rush
73TB
76GB
Explosive playsBuccaneers by 11Explosives allowed
87TB
71GB
Red zoneBuccaneers by 11Red-zone defense
82TB

How Matt LaFleur attacks

Matt LaFleur calls the plays for the Packers offense. The Packers use play-action on 14% of dropbacks, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 25%. They target running backs on 11% of throws, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 18%. They drop back to pass on 73% of snaps, most in the NFL; the league average is 60%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Packers offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Packers' favor, on about 60% of dropbacks. The Packers have averaged +0.19 EPA per play there so far (12th of 32, 74 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On passes after pre-snap motion, 0.01 EPA per play is expected in the Packers' favor, on about 53% of dropbacks.

How the Buccaneers defense has been beaten so far

Todd Bowles calls the Buccaneers defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Buccaneers have allowed +0.39 EPA per play on play-action passes, 29th of 32, on 21 plays. They have allowed +0.33 EPA per play on dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 29th of 32, on 57 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Buccaneers have an edge of their own. On runs into a light box, 0.03 EPA per play is expected in the Buccaneers' favor, on about 49% of runs. The Buccaneers have pressured the quarterback on 21% of dropbacks, 22nd of 32. A'Shawn Robinson leads the Buccaneers pass rush: 3 pressures, 1 sacks. Aaron Banks is the Packers starting left guard, listed as out (knee). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Against a four-man rush or fewerNot graded yet

The Packers will be at or above +0.10 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Packers throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Packers spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Buccaneers position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards12th of 32intermediate, 10-1913th of 32short, 0-915th of 32behind the line73Safeties19% of targets65Linebackers26% of targets83Cornerbacks51% of targets67Edge rushers79Interior line

Jordan Love with the ball

Time to throw2.49s0.35 seconds quicker than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 124 attempts.
Intended air yards9.1How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected−9.0%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Matt LaFleur calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Play-action14%
of dropbacks, fewest in the NFLleague 25%
Targets running backs11%
of throws, fewest in the NFLleague 18%
Drops back to pass73%
of snaps, most in the NFLleague 60%
Targets wide receivers70%
of throws, 3rd mostleague 59%
Runs off tackle30%
of runs, 7th of 32league 24%

What Todd Bowles calls

Blitzes46%
of dropbacks, 3rd mostleague 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run22%
of runs, 2nd mostleague 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)33%
of runs, 4th fewestleague 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Buccaneers

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Joe Burrow (CIN)2.54s2.53s in his other games. 35 attempts.
Week 2, Deshaun Watson (CLE)2.55s3.12s in his other games. 30 attempts.
Week 3, Kyler Murray (MIN)2.86s29 attempts. No other games to compare.

Where the Packers should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Against a four-man rush or fewer0.02EPA per play expected in the Packers’ favor, on about 60% of dropbacks. Packers +0.19 per play so far (12th of 32, 74 plays); Buccaneers have allowed +0.33.
Passing off motion0.01EPA per play expected in the Packers’ favor, on about 53% of dropbacks. Packers +0.14 per play so far (16th of 32, 67 plays); Buccaneers have allowed +0.04.
Targets to running backs0.01EPA per play expected in the Packers’ favor, on about 17% of throws. Packers +0.07 per play so far (13th of 32, 13 plays); Buccaneers have allowed +0.07.

Where the Buccaneers should get stops

Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)0.03EPA per play expected in the Buccaneers’ favor, on about 49% of runs. Packers −0.42 per play so far (31st of 32, 41 plays); Buccaneers have allowed −0.13.
Outside the numbers0.02EPA per play expected in the Buccaneers’ favor, on about 79% of throws. Packers +0.05 per play so far (21st of 32, 93 plays); Buccaneers have allowed +0.03.
Runs off motion0.02EPA per play expected in the Buccaneers’ favor, on about 60% of runs. Packers −0.32 per play so far (29th of 32, 29 plays); Buccaneers have allowed −0.08.

How the Buccaneers defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Play-action+0.39EPA allowed per play, 29th of 32, on 21 plays. Opponents went there on 20% of dropbacks (4th fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Against a four-man rush or fewer+0.33EPA allowed per play, 29th of 32, on 57 plays. Opponents went there on 54% of dropbacks (3rd fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Targets to tight ends+0.48EPA allowed per play, 28th of 32, on 23 plays. Opponents went there on 26% of throws (8th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Buccaneers defenders to know

91
A'Shawn Robinson
Getting home most
3 pressures, 1 sacks
34
Alex Anzalone
Most yards allowed in coverage
12 of 16 for 188 yards

When the Buccaneers have the ball

Zac Robinson calling plays against Jonathan Gannon’s defense.

Baker Mayfield is ruled out, and Jalon Daniels is expected to start. Every Buccaneers offensive number on this sheet was produced with Baker Mayfield playing, so read it as a description of that offense, not of this one.

71GB
Pass defensePackers by 11Passing
60TB
73GB
Run defenseBuccaneers by 7Rushing
80TB
82GB
Pass rushPackers by 17Protection
65TB
94GB
Explosives allowedPackers by 29Explosive plays
65TB
59GB
Red-zone defenseBuccaneers by 14Red zone
73TB

How Zac Robinson attacks

Baker Mayfield is ruled out. Jalon Daniels is next on the depth chart at quarterback. Every number below was produced with the listed starter playing, so it describes that offense and not this one. Zac Robinson calls the plays for the Buccaneers offense. The Buccaneers target running backs on 26% of throws, 2nd most; the league average is 18%. They drop back to pass on 69% of snaps, 2nd most; the league average is 60%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

These edges were measured with the quarterback who is now out. This is where the Buccaneers offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On runs off tackle, 0.01 EPA per play is expected in the Buccaneers' favor, on about 22% of runs. The Buccaneers have averaged +0.04 EPA per play there so far (7th of 32, 11 plays). EPA is expected points added.

How the Packers defense has been beaten so far

Jonathan Gannon calls the Packers defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Packers have allowed +0.36 EPA per play on runs to the edge, 29th of 30, on 26 plays. They have allowed +0.52 EPA per play on third-and-long dropbacks, 28th of 32, on 23 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Packers have an edge of their own. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.08 EPA per play is expected in the Packers' favor, on about 66% of dropbacks. The Packers have pressured the quarterback on 22% of dropbacks, 16th of 32. Lukas Van Ness leads the Packers pass rush: 7 pressures, 2.5 sacks. Baker Mayfield is the Buccaneers starting quarterback, listed as out (thumb). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

Runs off tackleScratched

Withdrawn before kickoff and not graded. Baker Mayfield was ruled out, and the call was made on numbers the offense produced with him at quarterback. The call stays on the record as it was written, 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Buccaneers throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Buccaneers spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Packers position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards7th of 32intermediate, 10-1910th of 32short, 0-95th fewestbehind the line85Safeties20% of targets72Linebackers21% of targets77Cornerbacks53% of targets87Edge rushers65Interior line

Jalon Daniels with the ball

Time to throw0.00s2.84 seconds quicker than the league average of 2.84, over 0 games and 0 attempts.
Intended air yards0.0How far downfield his average throw travels.

What Zac Robinson calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Targets running backs26%
of throws, 2nd mostleague 18%
Drops back to pass69%
of snaps, 2nd mostleague 60%
Runs from under center60%
of runs, 4th fewestleague 69%
Throws short (0-9 yards)39%
of throws, 5th fewestleague 48%
Motion before the run73%
of runs, 6th of 32league 61%

What Jonathan Gannon calls

Blitzes36%
of dropbacks, 9th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run3%
of runs, 27th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)58%
of runs, 5th mostleague 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Packers

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Carson Wentz (MIN)2.76s2.47s in his other games. 19 attempts.
Week 2, Geno Smith (NYJ)2.93s2.95s in his other games. 41 attempts.
Week 3, Michael Penix Jr. (ATL)2.27s25 attempts. No other games to compare.

Where the Buccaneers should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Runs off tackle0.01EPA per play expected in the Buccaneers’ favor, on about 22% of runs. Buccaneers +0.04 per play so far (7th of 32, 11 plays); Packers have allowed −0.08.

Where the Packers should get stops

Against a four-man rush or fewer0.08EPA per play expected in the Packers’ favor, on about 66% of dropbacks. Buccaneers −0.25 per play so far (31st of 32, 79 plays); Packers have allowed +0.15.
Outside the numbers0.06EPA per play expected in the Packers’ favor, on about 81% of throws. Buccaneers −0.13 per play so far (30th of 32, 80 plays); Packers have allowed +0.22.
Passing off motion0.04EPA per play expected in the Packers’ favor, on about 61% of dropbacks. Buccaneers −0.10 per play so far (27th of 32, 79 plays); Packers have allowed +0.07.

How the Packers defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Runs to the edge+0.36EPA allowed per play, 29th of 30, on 26 plays. Opponents went there on 29% of runs (5th most). History says a result like this does not carry.
Third and 7++0.52EPA allowed per play, 28th of 32, on 23 plays. Opponents went there on 22% of dropbacks (2nd most). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs from under center+0.05EPA allowed per play, 28th of 32, on 65 plays. Opponents went there on 72% of runs (11th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Packers defenders to know

90
Lukas Van Ness
Getting home most
7 pressures, 2.5 sacks
2
Brandon Cisse
Most yards allowed in coverage
8 of 12 for 168 yards
44
Zaire Franklin
Most missed tackles
4 missed, 21 made
Lineups and injuries

Packers

Offense

  1. QBJordan Love
  2. WRChristian Watson
  3. LTJordan Morgan
  4. LGAaron Banks out (next up: Laken Tomlinson)
  5. CSean Rhyan
  6. RGKevin Zeitler
  7. RTAnthony Belton
  8. TETucker Kraft
  9. RBKaleb Johnson
  10. WRMatthew Golden
  11. WRSkyy Moore

Defense

  1. LDEKarl Brooks
  2. NTJavon Hargrave
  3. RDEDevonte Wyatt
  4. WLBLukas Van Ness
  5. LILBEdgerrin Cooper questionable
  6. RILBZaire Franklin
  7. SLBBarryn Sorrell
  8. LCBKeisean Nixon
  9. SSEvan Williams
  10. FSXavier McKinney
  11. RCBBrandon Cisse
  12. NBJavon Bullard

Out or doubtful: Aaron Banks (G, knee), Jacob Monk (C, quadricep), Warren Brinson (DT, calf), Anthony Campbell (DT, ankle)

Questionable: Edgerrin Cooper (LB, shoulder), Jager Burton (C, groin)

Buccaneers

Offense

  1. QBBaker Mayfield out (next up: Jalon Daniels)
  2. WREmeka Egbuka
  3. LTTristan Wirfs
  4. LGBen Bredeson
  5. CGraham Barton
  6. RGCody Mauch
  7. RTLuke Goedeke
  8. TECade Otton
  9. RBBucky Irving
  10. WRChris Godwin Jr.
  11. WRTed Hurst III

Defense

  1. LDECalijah Kancey
  2. NTVita Vea
  3. RDEA'Shawn Robinson
  4. WLBRueben Bain Jr. out (next up: Al-Quadin Muhammad)
  5. LILBAlex Anzalone
  6. RILBJosiah Trotter
  7. SLBYaya Diaby
  8. LCBZyon McCollum
  9. SSTykee Smith
  10. FSAntoine Winfield Jr.
  11. RCBBenjamin Morrison out (next up: Ayden Garnes)
  12. NBJacob Parrish questionable

Out or doubtful: Baker Mayfield (QB, thumb), Ko Kieft (TE, elbow), Benjamin Morrison (CB, quadricep), Rueben Bain Jr. (LB, groin)

Questionable: Rakeem Nunez-Roches (DT, ankle), SirVocea Dennis (LB, calf), Jacob Parrish (CB, not injury related - personal matter)

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

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All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.