Top Performer

Chargers at Seahawks, Week 4

LAC

Chargers

0-3, on the road

60Offense76Defense

SEA

Seahawks

2-1, at home

86Offense96Defense
Week 4Sun 4:25 PM ETSEA −7Total 42.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Mike McDaniel
Defense called by Chris O'Leary
Chargers team sheet
Offense called by Brian Fleury
Defense called by Mike Macdonald
Seahawks team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Quarterback out of the pocket

Chargers
+0.11

EPA per play, 11th of 31, on 30 plays

Seahawks
23%

of dropbacks against them, 9th of 32; −0.10 allowed

What should carry: 0.02 EPA per play in the Chargers’ favor, on about 24% of dropbacks.

Outside the numbers

Seahawks
+0.29

EPA per play, 10th of 32, on 72 plays

Chargers
74%

of throws against them, 27th of 32; +0.46 allowed

What should carry: 0.03 EPA per play in the Seahawks’ favor, on about 77% of throws.

When the Chargers have the ball

Mike McDaniel calling plays against Mike Macdonald’s defense.

64LAC
PassingSeahawks by 23Pass defense
87SEA
63LAC
RushingSeahawks by 36Run defense
99SEA
64LAC
ProtectionSeahawks by 23Pass rush
87SEA
80LAC
Explosive playsSeahawks by 18Explosives allowed
98SEA
76LAC
Red zoneSeahawks by 14Red-zone defense
90SEA

How Mike McDaniel attacks

Mike McDaniel calls the plays for the Chargers offense. The Chargers use pre-snap motion on 81% of runs, most in the NFL; the league average is 61%. They line up under center on 13% of dropbacks, 2nd fewest; the league average is 22%. They throw to intermediate depth on 33% of throws, 2nd most; the league average is 22%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Chargers offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On throws from outside the pocket, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Chargers' favor, on about 24% of dropbacks. The Chargers have averaged +0.11 EPA per play there so far (11th of 31, 30 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On play-action passes, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Chargers' favor, on about 25% of dropbacks.

How the Seahawks defense has been beaten so far

Mike Macdonald calls the Seahawks defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Seahawks have allowed +0.34 EPA per play on short throws, 28th of 32, on 50 plays. They have allowed −0.09 EPA per play on throws behind the line of scrimmage, 23rd of 32, on 19 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Seahawks have an edge of their own. On passes after pre-snap motion, 0.07 EPA per play is expected in the Seahawks' favor, on about 68% of dropbacks. The Seahawks have pressured the quarterback on 28% of dropbacks, 6th of 32. DeMarcus Lawrence leads the Seahawks pass rush: 7 pressures, 0 sacks. Ladd McConkey is the Chargers starting wide receiver, listed as questionable (foot). Charlie Kolar is the Chargers starting tight end, listed as out (forearm). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Quarterback out of the pocketNot graded yet

The Chargers will be at or above −0.03 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 5 hours before kickoff.

Where the Chargers throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Chargers spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Seahawks position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards10th of 32intermediate, 10-192nd mostshort, 0-94th fewestbehind the line96Safeties24% of targets83Linebackers33% of targets95Cornerbacks39% of targets90Edge rushers92Interior line

Justin Herbert with the ball

Time to throw2.84sAbout league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 88 attempts.
Intended air yards9.5How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected−3.8%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Mike McDaniel calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Motion before the run81%
of runs, most in the NFLleague 61%
Drops back from under center13%
of dropbacks, 2nd fewestleague 22%
Throws intermediate (10-19)33%
of throws, 2nd mostleague 22%
Runs from under center51%
of runs, 3rd fewestleague 69%
Motion before the throw76%
of dropbacks, 3rd mostleague 57%

What Mike Macdonald calls

Blitzes20%
of dropbacks, 3rd fewestleague 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run3%
of runs, 5th fewestleague 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)41%
of runs, 21st of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Seahawks

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Drake Maye (NE)2.82s3.19s in his other games. 33 attempts.
Week 2, Jacoby Brissett (ARI)2.71s2.60s in his other games. 28 attempts.
Week 3, Marcus Mariota (WAS)2.77s3.19s in his other games. 31 attempts.

Where the Chargers should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Quarterback out of the pocket0.02EPA per play expected in the Chargers’ favor, on about 24% of dropbacks. Chargers +0.11 per play so far (11th of 31, 30 plays); Seahawks have allowed −0.10.
Play-action0.02EPA per play expected in the Chargers’ favor, on about 25% of dropbacks. Chargers +0.20 per play so far (11th of 32, 28 plays); Seahawks have allowed −0.04.
Dropback from under center0.00EPA per play expected in the Chargers’ favor, on about 15% of dropbacks. Chargers +0.16 per play so far (16th of 32, 13 plays); Seahawks have allowed +0.20.

Where the Seahawks should get stops

Passing off motion0.07EPA per play expected in the Seahawks’ favor, on about 68% of dropbacks. Chargers −0.22 per play so far (31st of 32, 79 plays); Seahawks have allowed +0.01.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.03EPA per play expected in the Seahawks’ favor, on about 74% of dropbacks. Chargers −0.03 per play so far (25th of 32, 79 plays); Seahawks have allowed −0.02.
Outside the numbers0.02EPA per play expected in the Seahawks’ favor, on about 82% of throws. Chargers +0.03 per play so far (22nd of 32, 75 plays); Seahawks have allowed −0.01.

How the Seahawks defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Short (0-9 air yards)+0.34EPA allowed per play, 28th of 32, on 50 plays. Opponents went there on 54% of throws (6th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Behind the line−0.09EPA allowed per play, 23rd of 32, on 19 plays. Opponents went there on 21% of throws (8th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Targets to running backs+0.12EPA allowed per play, 21st of 32, on 15 plays. Opponents went there on 17% of throws (16th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Seahawks defenders to know

0
DeMarcus Lawrence
Getting home most
7 pressures, 0 sacks
13
Ernest Jones
Most yards allowed in coverage
11 of 19 for 123 yards
32
Drake Thomas
Most missed tackles
3 missed, 25 made

When the Seahawks have the ball

Brian Fleury calling plays against Chris O'Leary’s defense.

69LAC
Pass defenseSeahawks by 25Passing
94SEA
85LAC
Run defenseChargers by 21Rushing
64SEA
86LAC
Pass rushChargers by 4Protection
82SEA
82LAC
Explosives allowedSeahawks by 2Explosive plays
84SEA
93LAC
Red-zone defenseChargers by 20Red zone
73SEA

How Brian Fleury attacks

Brian Fleury calls the plays for the Seahawks offense. The Seahawks line up under center on 33% of dropbacks, 3rd most; the league average is 22%. They use play-action on 35% of dropbacks, 3rd most; the league average is 25%. They run to the edge on 31% of runs, 5th most; the league average is 21%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Seahawks offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On throws outside the numbers, 0.03 EPA per play is expected in the Seahawks' favor, on about 77% of throws. The Seahawks have averaged +0.29 EPA per play there so far (10th of 32, 72 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws to wide receivers, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Seahawks' favor, on about 60% of throws.

How the Chargers defense has been beaten so far

Chris O'Leary calls the Chargers defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Chargers have allowed +0.30 EPA per play on runs to the left, last in the NFL, on 26 plays. They have allowed +0.46 EPA per play on throws outside the numbers, 31st of 32, on 68 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Chargers have an edge of their own. On throws to tight ends, 0.08 EPA per play is expected in the Chargers' favor, on about 20% of throws. The Chargers have pressured the quarterback on 25% of dropbacks, 11th of 32. Khalil Mack leads the Chargers pass rush: 7 pressures, 2 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Outside the numbersNot graded yet

The Seahawks will be at or above +0.14 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 5 hours before kickoff.

Where the Seahawks throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Seahawks spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Chargers position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards24th of 32intermediate, 10-195th mostshort, 0-922nd of 32behind the line85Safeties34% of targets86Linebackers23% of targets68Cornerbacks37% of targets82Edge rushers71Interior line

Sam Darnold with the ball

Time to throw3.29s0.45 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 1 games and 45 attempts.
Intended air yards7.1How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+7.0%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Brian Fleury calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Drops back from under center33%
of dropbacks, 3rd mostleague 22%
Play-action35%
of dropbacks, 3rd mostleague 25%
Runs to the edge31%
of runs, 5th mostleague 21%
Throws intermediate (10-19)28%
of throws, 5th mostleague 22%
Targets tight ends17%
of throws, 27th of 32league 23%

What Chris O'Leary calls

Blitzes25%
of dropbacks, 23rd of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run9%
of runs, 14th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)57%
of runs, 6th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Chargers

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Jacoby Brissett (ARI)2.56s2.65s in his other games. 37 attempts.
Week 2, Kirk Cousins (LV)2.85s2.79s in his other games. 29 attempts.
Week 3, Josh Allen (BUF)3.01s2.97s in his other games. 26 attempts.

Where the Seahawks should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Outside the numbers0.03EPA per play expected in the Seahawks’ favor, on about 77% of throws. Seahawks +0.29 per play so far (10th of 32, 72 plays); Chargers have allowed +0.46.
Targets to wide receivers0.04EPA per play expected in the Seahawks’ favor, on about 60% of throws. Seahawks +0.52 per play so far (7th of 32, 61 plays); Chargers have allowed +0.44.
Play-action0.08EPA per play expected in the Seahawks’ favor, on about 28% of dropbacks. Seahawks +0.55 per play so far (best in the NFL, 35 plays); Chargers have allowed +0.16.
Passing off motion0.04EPA per play expected in the Seahawks’ favor, on about 54% of dropbacks. Seahawks +0.28 per play so far (7th of 32, 53 plays); Chargers have allowed +0.13.

Where the Chargers should get stops

Targets to tight ends0.08EPA per play expected in the Chargers’ favor, on about 20% of throws. Seahawks −0.36 per play so far (last in the NFL, 16 plays); Chargers have allowed +0.13.
Runs off motion0.02EPA per play expected in the Chargers’ favor, on about 65% of runs. Seahawks −0.33 per play so far (30th of 32, 52 plays); Chargers have allowed −0.22.
Runs up the middle0.04EPA per play expected in the Chargers’ favor, on about 31% of runs. Seahawks −0.51 per play so far (last in the NFL, 23 plays); Chargers have allowed −0.41.

How the Chargers defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Runs left+0.30EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 26 plays. Opponents went there on 30% of runs (27th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Outside the numbers+0.46EPA allowed per play, 31st of 32, on 68 plays. Opponents went there on 74% of throws (27th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Targets to wide receivers+0.44EPA allowed per play, 25th of 32, on 49 plays. Opponents went there on 54% of throws (24th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Chargers defenders to know

52
Khalil Mack
Getting home most
7 pressures, 2 sacks
20
Cam Hart
Most yards allowed in coverage
10 of 14 for 167 yards
3
Derwin James
Most missed tackles
3 missed, 21 made
Lineups and injuries

Chargers

Offense

  1. QBJustin Herbert
  2. WRLadd McConkey questionable
  3. LTRashawn Slater
  4. LGTrevor Penning
  5. CJake Slaughter
  6. RGCole Strange
  7. RTJoe Alt
  8. TECharlie Kolar out (next up: Oronde Gadsden)
  9. RBOmarion Hampton
  10. FBAlec Ingold
  11. WRQuentin Johnston
  12. WRTre' Harris

Defense

  1. LDETeair Tart
  2. NTJamaree Caldwell
  3. RDEJustin Eboigbe
  4. WLBTuli Tuipulotu
  5. LILBDaiyan Henley
  6. RILBDel'Shawn Phillips
  7. SLBKhalil Mack
  8. LCBCam Hart
  9. SSDerwin James Jr. questionable
  10. FSElijah Molden questionable
  11. RCBDonte Jackson questionable
  12. NBTarheeb Still

Out or doubtful: Dalvin Tomlinson (DT, hamstring), Kayode Awosika (G, fibula), Charlie Kolar (TE, forearm), Brenen Thompson (WR, quadricep)

Questionable: Donte Jackson (CB, concussion), Derwin James (S, hamstring), Elijah Molden (S, hamstring), Trey Lance (QB, groin), Ladd McConkey (WR, foot)

Seahawks

Offense

  1. QBSam Darnold
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba
  3. LTCharles Cross
  4. LGGrey Zabel
  5. CJalen Sundell
  6. RGChristian Haynes
  7. RTAbraham Lucas
  8. TEAJ Barner
  9. RBEmanuel Wilson
  10. FBBrady Russell
  11. WRRashid Shaheed
  12. WRCooper Kupp

Defense

  1. LDELeonard Williams
  2. NTByron Murphy II
  3. RDEJarran Reed
  4. WLBDeMarcus Lawrence
  5. LILBDrake Thomas
  6. RILBErnest Jones IV
  7. SLBUchenna Nwosu
  8. LCBDevon Witherspoon
  9. SSTy Okada questionable
  10. FSJulian Love
  11. RCBJosh Jobe
  12. NBNick Emmanwori

Out or doubtful: Zach Charbonnet (RB, knee), Jadarian Price (RB, chest)

Questionable: Chazz Surratt (LB, calf), Ty Okada (S, hamstring)

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

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All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.