Top Performer

Lions at Panthers, Week 4

DET

Lions

2-1, on the road

91Offense63Defense

CAR

Panthers

1-2, at home

87Offense82Defense
Week 4Sun 8:20 PM ETDET −3.5Total 51.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Drew Petzing
Defense called by Kelvin Sheppard
Lions team sheet
Offense called by Brad Idzik
Defense called by Ejiro Evero
Panthers team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Outside the numbers

Lions
+0.32

EPA per play, 8th of 32, on 86 plays

Panthers
77%

of throws against them, 22nd of 32; +0.09 allowed

What should carry: 0.04 EPA per play in the Lions’ favor, on about 79% of throws.

Passing off motion

Panthers
+0.28

EPA per play, 8th of 32, on 73 plays

Lions
59%

of dropbacks against them, 14th of 32; +0.27 allowed

What should carry: 0.03 EPA per play in the Panthers’ favor, on about 56% of dropbacks.

When the Lions have the ball

Drew Petzing calling plays against Ejiro Evero’s defense.

90DET
PassingLions by 5Pass defense
85CAR
82DET
RushingLions by 8Run defense
74CAR
81DET
ProtectionPanthers by 3Pass rush
84CAR
87DET
Explosive playsLions by 6Explosives allowed
81CAR
96DET
Red zoneLions by 23Red-zone defense
73CAR

How Drew Petzing attacks

Drew Petzing calls the plays for the Lions offense. The Lions throw short on 59% of throws, most in the NFL; the league average is 48%. They line up under center on 87% of runs, 2nd most; the league average is 69%. They use play-action on 35% of dropbacks, 2nd most; the league average is 25%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Lions offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On throws outside the numbers, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Lions' favor, on about 79% of throws. The Lions have averaged +0.32 EPA per play there so far (8th of 32, 86 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On passes after pre-snap motion, 0.03 EPA per play is expected in the Lions' favor, on about 58% of dropbacks.

How the Panthers defense has been beaten so far

Ejiro Evero calls the Panthers defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Panthers have allowed +0.11 EPA per play on early-down runs, 31st of 32, on 72 plays. They have allowed +0.17 EPA per play on runs into a light box, 30th of 32, on 40 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Panthers have an edge of their own. On throws from outside the pocket, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Panthers' favor, on about 16% of dropbacks. The Panthers have pressured the quarterback on 26% of dropbacks, 7th of 32. Jaelan Phillips leads the Panthers pass rush: 8 pressures, 2 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Outside the numbersNot graded yet

The Lions will be at or above +0.14 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 9 hours before kickoff.

Where the Lions throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Lions spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Panthers position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards2nd fewestintermediate, 10-1911th of 32short, 0-9most in the NFLbehind the line87Safeties24% of targets94Linebackers28% of targets77Cornerbacks42% of targets91Edge rushers76Interior line

Jared Goff with the ball

Time to throw2.82sAbout league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 109 attempts.
Intended air yards7.2How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+3.7%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Drew Petzing calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Throws short (0-9 yards)59%
of throws, most in the NFLleague 48%
Runs from under center87%
of runs, 2nd mostleague 69%
Play-action35%
of dropbacks, 2nd mostleague 25%
Throws deep (20+)6%
of throws, 2nd fewestleague 12%
Motion before the run46%
of runs, 4th fewestleague 61%

What Ejiro Evero calls

Blitzes37%
of dropbacks, 7th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run2%
of runs, 3rd fewestleague 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)48%
of runs, 11th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Panthers

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Caleb Williams (CHI)3.16s3.71s in his other games. 29 attempts.
Week 2, Cooper Rush (ATL)2.19s2.65s in his other games. 17 attempts.
Week 2, Jack Strand (ATL)2.54s15 attempts. No other games to compare.
Week 3, Deshaun Watson (CLE)3.17s2.76s in his other games. 30 attempts.

Where the Lions should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Outside the numbers0.04EPA per play expected in the Lions’ favor, on about 79% of throws. Lions +0.32 per play so far (8th of 32, 86 plays); Panthers have allowed +0.09.
Passing off motion0.03EPA per play expected in the Lions’ favor, on about 58% of dropbacks. Lions +0.24 per play so far (11th of 32, 72 plays); Panthers have allowed +0.20.
Against the blitz0.04EPA per play expected in the Lions’ favor, on about 35% of dropbacks. Lions +0.48 per play so far (2nd of 32, 40 plays); Panthers have allowed −0.03.
Targets to running backs0.06EPA per play expected in the Lions’ favor, on about 20% of throws. Lions +0.45 per play so far (2nd of 32, 24 plays); Panthers have allowed −0.10.

Where the Panthers should get stops

Quarterback out of the pocket0.04EPA per play expected in the Panthers’ favor, on about 16% of dropbacks. Lions −0.30 per play so far (24th of 31, 14 plays); Panthers have allowed +0.50.

How the Panthers defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Early-down runs+0.11EPA allowed per play, 31st of 32, on 72 plays. Opponents went there on 87% of runs (21st of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)+0.17EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 40 plays. Opponents went there on 48% of runs (11th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs right+0.12EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 30 plays. Opponents went there on 36% of runs (14th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Panthers defenders to know

5
Jaelan Phillips
Getting home most
8 pressures, 2 sacks
24
Will Lee
Most yards allowed in coverage
10 of 19 for 145 yards
7
Tre'von Moehrig
Most missed tackles
3 missed, 12 made

When the Panthers have the ball

Brad Idzik calling plays against Kelvin Sheppard’s defense.

65DET
Pass defensePanthers by 20Passing
85CAR
63DET
Run defensePanthers by 9Rushing
72CAR
87DET
Pass rushLions by 16Protection
71CAR
59DET
Explosives allowedPanthers by 34Explosive plays
93CAR
71DET
Red-zone defensePanthers by 16Red zone
87CAR

How Brad Idzik attacks

Brad Idzik calls the plays for the Panthers offense. The Panthers target running backs on 12% of throws, 3rd fewest; the league average is 18%. They drop back to pass on 68% of snaps, 3rd most; the league average is 60%. They throw a screen on 4% of dropbacks, 4th fewest; the league average is 8%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Panthers offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On passes after pre-snap motion, 0.03 EPA per play is expected in the Panthers' favor, on about 56% of dropbacks. The Panthers have averaged +0.28 EPA per play there so far (8th of 32, 73 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws to running backs, 0.09 EPA per play is expected in the Panthers' favor, on about 16% of throws.

How the Lions defense has been beaten so far

Kelvin Sheppard calls the Lions defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Lions have allowed +1.92 EPA per play on deep throws, last of the 27 teams with enough plays, on 15 plays. They have allowed +0.77 EPA per play on throws to wide receivers, last in the NFL, on 57 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Lions have an edge of their own. On runs up the middle, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Lions' favor, on about 31% of runs. The Lions have pressured the quarterback on 23% of dropbacks, 15th of 32. Aidan Hutchinson leads the Lions pass rush: 9 pressures, 3.5 sacks. Monroe Freeling is the Panthers starting right tackle, listed as questionable (concussion). Jalen Coker is the Panthers starting wide receiver, listed as questionable (quadricep). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Passing off motionNot graded yet

The Panthers will be at or above +0.11 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 9 hours before kickoff.

Where the Panthers throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Panthers spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Lions position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards8th of 32intermediate, 10-1919th of 32short, 0-913th of 32behind the line78Safeties27% of targets81Linebackers33% of targets74Cornerbacks37% of targets69Edge rushers94Interior line

Bryce Young with the ball

Time to throw3.02s0.18 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 121 attempts.
Intended air yards10.2How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+4.0%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Brad Idzik calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Targets running backs12%
of throws, 3rd fewestleague 18%
Drops back to pass68%
of snaps, 3rd mostleague 60%
Screens4%
of dropbacks, 4th fewestleague 8%
Drops back from under center16%
of dropbacks, 26th of 32league 22%
Targets tight ends28%
of throws, 7th of 32league 23%

What Kelvin Sheppard calls

Blitzes35%
of dropbacks, 10th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run18%
of runs, 7th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)28%
of runs, fewest in the NFLleague 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Lions

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Tyler Shough (NO)2.60s2.70s in his other games. 56 attempts.
Week 2, Josh Allen (BUF)2.84s3.06s in his other games. 31 attempts.
Week 3, Geno Smith (NYJ)2.89s2.97s in his other games. 37 attempts.

Where the Panthers should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Passing off motion0.03EPA per play expected in the Panthers’ favor, on about 56% of dropbacks. Panthers +0.28 per play so far (8th of 32, 73 plays); Lions have allowed +0.27.
Targets to running backs0.09EPA per play expected in the Panthers’ favor, on about 16% of throws. Panthers +0.70 per play so far (best in the NFL, 13 plays); Lions have allowed −0.16.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.02EPA per play expected in the Panthers’ favor, on about 67% of dropbacks. Panthers +0.19 per play so far (11th of 32, 97 plays); Lions have allowed +0.22.
Outside the numbers0.01EPA per play expected in the Panthers’ favor, on about 81% of throws. Panthers +0.20 per play so far (13th of 32, 101 plays); Lions have allowed +0.37.

Where the Lions should get stops

Runs up the middle0.02EPA per play expected in the Lions’ favor, on about 31% of runs. Panthers −0.30 per play so far (25th of 32, 16 plays); Lions have allowed +0.16.
Runs off motion0.01EPA per play expected in the Lions’ favor, on about 61% of runs. Panthers −0.19 per play so far (23rd of 32, 37 plays); Lions have allowed +0.01.
Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)0.00EPA per play expected in the Lions’ favor, on about 44% of runs. Panthers −0.10 per play so far (19th of 32, 38 plays); Lions have allowed −0.04.

How the Lions defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Deep (20+)+1.92EPA allowed per play, last of the 27 teams with enough plays, on 15 plays. Opponents went there on 12% of throws (12th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Targets to wide receivers+0.77EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 57 plays. Opponents went there on 49% of throws (2nd fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs inside (guard to guard)+0.14EPA allowed per play, 31st of 32, on 38 plays. Opponents went there on 57% of runs (14th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Lions defenders to know

97
Aidan Hutchinson
Getting home most
9 pressures, 3.5 sacks
4
D.J. Reed
Most yards allowed in coverage
9 of 14 for 174 yards
Lineups and injuries

Lions

Offense

  1. QBJared Goff
  2. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown
  3. LTPenei Sewell
  4. LGChristian Mahogany
  5. CJuice Scruggs
  6. RGTate Ratledge
  7. RTBlake Miller
  8. TESam LaPorta
  9. RBJahmyr Gibbs
  10. WRJameson Williams
  11. WRIsaac TeSlaa

Defense

  1. LDEAidan Hutchinson
  2. LDTAlim McNeill
  3. RDTTyleik Williams
  4. RDETyler Lacy
  5. WLBDerrick Barnes
  6. MLBJack Campbell
  7. SLBDevin White
  8. LCBD.J. Reed questionable
  9. SSChristian Izien
  10. FSChuck Clark
  11. RCBEnnis Rakestraw Jr.
  12. NBRoger McCreary

Out or doubtful: Ben Bartch (G, foot)

Questionable: D.J. Reed (CB, rib)

Panthers

Offense

  1. QBBryce Young
  2. WRTetairoa McMillan
  3. LTRasheed Walker
  4. LGCorey Bullock
  5. CLuke Fortner
  6. RGRobert Hunt
  7. RTMonroe Freeling questionable
  8. TETommy Tremble
  9. RBChuba Hubbard
  10. WRJalen Coker questionable
  11. WRBrycen Tremayne

Defense

  1. LDEDerrick Brown
  2. NTLee Hunter questionable
  3. RDEBobby Brown III
  4. WLBPatrick Jones II
  5. LILBDevin Lloyd
  6. RILBBobby Okereke
  7. SLBJaelan Phillips
  8. LCBAkayleb Evans
  9. SSTre'von Moehrig
  10. FSNick Scott
  11. RCBWill Lee III
  12. NBChau Smith-Wade

Out or doubtful: Damien Lewis (G, elbow), Xavier Legette (WR, knee)

Questionable: Jalen Coker (WR, quadricep), Cam Jackson (DT, knee), Monroe Freeling (T, concussion), Lee Hunter (DT, foot)

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

top fivetop thirdmiddlebottom third

All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.