Top Performer

Cardinals at Giants, Week 4

ARI

Cardinals

1-2, on the road

84Offense64Defense

NYG

Giants

2-1, at home

77Offense65Defense
Week 4Sun 1:00 PM ETARI −2.5Total 43.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Mike LaFleur
Defense called by Nick Rallis
Cardinals team sheet
Offense called by Matt Nagy
Defense called by Dennard Wilson
Giants team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Against a four-man rush or fewer

Cardinals
+0.18

EPA per play, 14th of 32, on 95 plays

Giants
74%

of dropbacks against them, 12th of 32; +0.19 allowed

What should carry: 0.02 EPA per play in the Cardinals’ favor, on about 72% of dropbacks.

Against a four-man rush or fewer

Giants
+0.28

EPA per play, 7th of 32, on 64 plays

Cardinals
78%

of dropbacks against them, 7th of 32; +0.30 allowed

What should carry: 0.04 EPA per play in the Giants’ favor, on about 73% of dropbacks.

When the Cardinals have the ball

Mike LaFleur calling plays against Dennard Wilson’s defense.

81ARI
PassingCardinals by 14Pass defense
67NYG
76ARI
RushingGiants by 2Run defense
78NYG
89ARI
ProtectionCardinals by 29Pass rush
60NYG
59ARI
Explosive playsGiants by 22Explosives allowed
81NYG
69ARI
Red zoneGiants by 16Red-zone defense
85NYG

How Mike LaFleur attacks

Mike LaFleur calls the plays for the Cardinals offense. The Cardinals use pre-snap motion on 81% of runs, most in the NFL; the league average is 61%. They target tight ends on 34% of throws, 2nd most; the league average is 23%. They use play-action on 15% of dropbacks, 2nd fewest; the league average is 25%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Cardinals offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Cardinals' favor, on about 72% of dropbacks. The Cardinals have averaged +0.18 EPA per play there so far (14th of 32, 95 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws outside the numbers, 0.01 EPA per play is expected in the Cardinals' favor, on about 83% of throws.

How the Giants defense has been beaten so far

Dennard Wilson calls the Giants defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Giants have allowed +0.12 EPA per play on runs to the right, 31st of 32, on 23 plays. They have allowed +0.47 EPA per play on throws to running backs, 30th of 32, on 12 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Giants have an edge of their own. On throws to wide receivers, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Giants' favor, on about 55% of throws. The Giants have pressured the quarterback on 11% of dropbacks, last in the NFL. Abdul Carter leads the Giants pass rush: 2 pressures, 1 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Against a four-man rush or fewerNot graded yet

The Cardinals will be at or above +0.10 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Cardinals throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Cardinals spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Giants position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards5th fewestintermediate, 10-1923rd of 32short, 0-93rd mostbehind the line84Safeties24% of targets80Linebackers20% of targets77Cornerbacks52% of targets65Edge rushers59Interior line

Jacoby Brissett with the ball

Time to throw2.62s0.22 seconds quicker than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 117 attempts.
Intended air yards6.3How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+4.3%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Mike LaFleur calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Motion before the run81%
of runs, most in the NFLleague 61%
Targets tight ends34%
of throws, 2nd mostleague 23%
Play-action15%
of dropbacks, 2nd fewestleague 25%
Targets wide receivers49%
of throws, 3rd fewestleague 59%
Throws short (0-9 yards)58%
of throws, 3rd mostleague 48%

What Dennard Wilson calls

Blitzes26%
of dropbacks, 21st of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run20%
of runs, 3rd mostleague 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)41%
of runs, 20th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Giants

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Dak Prescott (DAL)2.75s2.67s in his other games. 34 attempts.
Week 2, Matthew Stafford (LA)2.63s2.82s in his other games. 31 attempts.
Week 3, Cam Ward (TEN)2.72s2.97s in his other games. 36 attempts.

Where the Cardinals should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Against a four-man rush or fewer0.02EPA per play expected in the Cardinals’ favor, on about 72% of dropbacks. Cardinals +0.18 per play so far (14th of 32, 95 plays); Giants have allowed +0.19.
Outside the numbers0.01EPA per play expected in the Cardinals’ favor, on about 83% of throws. Cardinals +0.19 per play so far (14th of 32, 96 plays); Giants have allowed +0.19.
Targets to tight ends0.03EPA per play expected in the Cardinals’ favor, on about 28% of throws. Cardinals +0.41 per play so far (9th of 32, 38 plays); Giants have allowed +0.16.
Quarterback out of the pocket0.03EPA per play expected in the Cardinals’ favor, on about 17% of dropbacks. Cardinals +0.18 per play so far (10th of 31, 16 plays); Giants have allowed −0.46.

Where the Giants should get stops

Targets to wide receivers0.02EPA per play expected in the Giants’ favor, on about 55% of throws. Cardinals +0.16 per play so far (19th of 32, 55 plays); Giants have allowed +0.30.
Play-action0.04EPA per play expected in the Giants’ favor, on about 21% of dropbacks. Cardinals −0.08 per play so far (27th of 32, 19 plays); Giants have allowed +0.04.
Passing off motion0.01EPA per play expected in the Giants’ favor, on about 55% of dropbacks. Cardinals +0.05 per play so far (20th of 32, 65 plays); Giants have allowed +0.24.

How the Giants defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Runs right+0.12EPA allowed per play, 31st of 32, on 23 plays. Opponents went there on 38% of runs (11th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Targets to running backs+0.47EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 12 plays. Opponents went there on 13% of throws (3rd fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Straight dropback+0.28EPA allowed per play, 29th of 32, on 74 plays. Opponents went there on 71% of dropbacks (16th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Giants defenders to know

3
Abdul Carter
Getting home most
2 pressures, 1 sacks
27
Tyler Nubin
Most yards allowed in coverage
6 of 11 for 120 yards
20
Greg Newsome II
Most missed tackles
2 missed, 11 made

When the Giants have the ball

Matt Nagy calling plays against Nick Rallis’s defense.

62ARI
Pass defenseGiants by 14Passing
76NYG
91ARI
Run defenseCardinals by 13Rushing
78NYG
67ARI
Pass rushGiants by 6Protection
73NYG
63ARI
Explosives allowedCardinals by 3Explosive plays
60NYG
86ARI
Red-zone defenseCardinals by 1Red zone
85NYG

How Matt Nagy attacks

Matt Nagy calls the plays for the Giants offense. The Giants target tight ends on 34% of throws, most in the NFL; the league average is 23%. They use pre-snap motion on 44% of dropbacks, 4th fewest; the league average is 57%. They target wide receivers on 49% of throws, 4th fewest; the league average is 59%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Giants offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Giants' favor, on about 73% of dropbacks. The Giants have averaged +0.28 EPA per play there so far (7th of 32, 64 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On passes after pre-snap motion, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Giants' favor, on about 50% of dropbacks.

How the Cardinals defense has been beaten so far

Nick Rallis calls the Cardinals defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Cardinals have allowed +0.75 EPA per play on short throws, last in the NFL, on 33 plays. They have allowed +0.69 EPA per play on dropbacks against the blitz, last in the NFL, on 20 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Cardinals have an edge of their own. On throws to wide receivers, 0.05 EPA per play is expected in the Cardinals' favor, on about 55% of throws. The Cardinals have pressured the quarterback on 19% of dropbacks, 27th of 32. Walter Nolen leads the Cardinals pass rush: 4 pressures, 0 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Against a four-man rush or fewerNot graded yet

The Giants will be at or above +0.10 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Giants throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Giants spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Cardinals position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards22nd of 32intermediate, 10-197th of 32short, 0-923rd of 32behind the line69Safeties20% of targets69Linebackers27% of targets77Cornerbacks51% of targets74Edge rushers79Interior line

Jameis Winston with the ball

Time to throw2.72s0.12 seconds quicker than the league average of 2.84, over 2 games and 49 attempts.
Intended air yards8.1How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected−9.1%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Matt Nagy calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Targets tight ends34%
of throws, most in the NFLleague 23%
Motion before the throw44%
of dropbacks, 4th fewestleague 57%
Targets wide receivers49%
of throws, 4th fewestleague 59%
Drops back to pass53%
of snaps, 4th fewestleague 60%
Throws intermediate (10-19)28%
of throws, 7th of 32league 22%

What Nick Rallis calls

Blitzes22%
of dropbacks, 26th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run3%
of runs, 4th fewestleague 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)42%
of runs, 17th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Cardinals

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Justin Herbert (LAC)2.73s2.89s in his other games. 27 attempts.
Week 2, Drew Lock (SEA)2.77s2.77s in his other games. 26 attempts.
Week 3, Brock Purdy (SF)3.24s2.83s in his other games. 27 attempts.

Where the Giants should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Against a four-man rush or fewer0.04EPA per play expected in the Giants’ favor, on about 73% of dropbacks. Giants +0.28 per play so far (7th of 32, 64 plays); Cardinals have allowed +0.30.
Passing off motion0.04EPA per play expected in the Giants’ favor, on about 50% of dropbacks. Giants +0.28 per play so far (5th of 32, 41 plays); Cardinals have allowed +0.28.
Dropback from under center0.05EPA per play expected in the Giants’ favor, on about 22% of dropbacks. Giants +0.46 per play so far (3rd of 32, 21 plays); Cardinals have allowed +0.46.
Play-action0.04EPA per play expected in the Giants’ favor, on about 25% of dropbacks. Giants +0.31 per play so far (8th of 32, 24 plays); Cardinals have allowed +0.59.

Where the Cardinals should get stops

Targets to wide receivers0.05EPA per play expected in the Cardinals’ favor, on about 55% of throws. Giants −0.06 per play so far (31st of 32, 40 plays); Cardinals have allowed +0.61.
Deep (20+)0.16EPA per play expected in the Cardinals’ favor, on about 11% of throws. Giants −0.87 per play so far (last of the 24 teams with enough plays, 8 plays); Cardinals have allowed +0.84.
Against the blitz0.06EPA per play expected in the Cardinals’ favor, on about 27% of dropbacks. Giants −0.62 per play so far (last in the NFL, 29 plays); Cardinals have allowed +0.69.

How the Cardinals defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Short (0-9 air yards)+0.75EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 33 plays. Opponents went there on 41% of throws (3rd fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Against the blitz+0.69EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 20 plays. Opponents went there on 22% of dropbacks (26th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Early-down dropbacks+0.37EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 63 plays. Opponents went there on 70% of dropbacks (20th of 32). Some of this carries

Cardinals defenders to know

97
Walter Nolen
Getting home most
4 pressures, 0 sacks
3
Budda Baker
Most yards allowed in coverage
6 of 11 for 146 yards
28
Andrew Wingard
Most missed tackles
3 missed, 22 made
Lineups and injuries

Cardinals

Offense

  1. QBJacoby Brissett
  2. WRMichael Wilson
  3. LTParis Johnson Jr.
  4. LGIsaac Seumalo
  5. CHjalte Froholdt
  6. RGIsaiah Adams
  7. RTElijah Wilkinson
  8. TETrey McBride
  9. RBJeremiyah Love
  10. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.
  11. WRKendrick Bourne

Defense

  1. LDEJosh Sweat questionable
  2. LDTRoy Lopez
  3. RDTWalter Nolen III
  4. RDEDante Stills
  5. WLBJack Gibbens
  6. MLBMack Wilson Sr.
  7. SLBZaven Collins
  8. LCBGarrett Williams
  9. SSBudda Baker
  10. FSAndrew Wingard
  11. RCBDenzel Burke
  12. NBMax Melton

Out or doubtful: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, back)

Questionable: Josh Sweat (LB, not injury related - resting player)

Giants

Offense

  1. QBJameis Winston
  2. WRMalik Nabers
  3. LTAndrew Thomas
  4. LGJon Runyan
  5. CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.
  6. RGFrancis Mauigoa
  7. RTJermaine Eluemunor
  8. TEIsaiah Likely
  9. RBCam Skattebo
  10. FBPatrick Ricard
  11. WRMalachi Fields
  12. WRDarnell Mooney

Defense

  1. LDEShelby Harris
  2. NTDJ Reader
  3. RDEChauncey Golston
  4. WLBKayvon Thibodeaux
  5. LILBArvell Reese
  6. RILBTremaine Edmunds
  7. SLBAbdul Carter
  8. LCBDeonte Banks
  9. SSTyler Nubin
  10. FSJevon Holland
  11. RCBGreg Newsome II
  12. NBDru Phillips

Out or doubtful: nobody listed

Questionable: nobody listed

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

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All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.