Top Performer

Rams at Eagles, Week 4

LA

Rams

1-2, on the road

81Offense90Defense

PHI

Eagles

2-1, at home

76Offense67Defense
Week 4Sun 1:00 PM ETLA −3.5Total 42.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Sean McVay
Defense called by Chris Shula
Rams team sheet
Offense called by Sean Mannion
Defense called by Vic Fangio
Eagles team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Against a four-man rush or fewer

Rams
+0.22

EPA per play, 8th of 32, on 80 plays

Eagles
74%

of dropbacks against them, 11th of 32; −0.03 allowed

What should carry: 0.03 EPA per play in the Rams’ favor, on about 71% of dropbacks.

Runs up the middle

Eagles
+0.35

EPA per play, 2nd of 32, on 11 plays

Rams
39%

of runs against them, 5th most; −0.02 allowed

What should carry: 0.04 EPA per play in the Eagles’ favor, on about 28% of runs.

When the Rams have the ball

Sean McVay calling plays against Vic Fangio’s defense.

78LA
PassingRams by 10Pass defense
68PHI
74LA
RushingRams by 10Run defense
64PHI
90LA
ProtectionRams by 28Pass rush
62PHI
95LA
Explosive playsRams by 10Explosives allowed
85PHI
68LA
Red zoneRams by 3Red-zone defense
65PHI

How Sean McVay attacks

Sean McVay calls the plays for the Rams offense. The Rams use pre-snap motion on 81% of runs, most in the NFL; the league average is 61%. They run off tackle on 14% of runs, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 24%. They target tight ends on 33% of throws, 3rd most; the league average is 23%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Rams offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.03 EPA per play is expected in the Rams' favor, on about 71% of dropbacks. The Rams have averaged +0.22 EPA per play there so far (8th of 32, 80 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws to wide receivers, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Rams' favor, on about 56% of throws.

How the Eagles defense has been beaten so far

Vic Fangio calls the Eagles defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Eagles have allowed +0.58 EPA per play on dropbacks from under center, 31st of 32, on 25 plays. They have allowed +0.66 EPA per play on dropbacks against the blitz, 30th of 32, on 25 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Eagles have an edge of their own. On throws outside the numbers, 0.01 EPA per play is expected in the Eagles' favor, on about 79% of throws. The Eagles have pressured the quarterback on 14% of dropbacks, 31st of 32. Jalyx Hunt leads the Eagles pass rush: 5 pressures, 0 sacks. Colby Parkinson is the Rams starting tight end, listed as questionable (knee). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Against a four-man rush or fewerNot graded yet

The Rams will be at or above +0.10 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Rams throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Rams spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Eagles position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards13th of 32intermediate, 10-194th mostshort, 0-919th of 32behind the line61Safeties17% of targets75Linebackers27% of targets79Cornerbacks49% of targets62Edge rushers67Interior line

Matthew Stafford with the ball

Time to throw2.77s0.08 seconds quicker than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 111 attempts.
Intended air yards10.0How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+1.7%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Sean McVay calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Motion before the run81%
of runs, most in the NFLleague 61%
Runs off tackle14%
of runs, fewest in the NFLleague 24%
Targets tight ends33%
of throws, 3rd mostleague 23%
Runs inside67%
of runs, 4th mostleague 55%
Throws intermediate (10-19)29%
of throws, 4th mostleague 22%

What Vic Fangio calls

Blitzes26%
of dropbacks, 22nd of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run7%
of runs, 20th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)60%
of runs, 4th mostleague 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Eagles

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Jayden Daniels (WAS)3.41s2.91s in his other games. 34 attempts.
Week 2, Cam Ward (TEN)3.07s2.80s in his other games. 20 attempts.
Week 3, Case Keenum (CHI)2.41s34 attempts. No other games to compare.

Where the Rams should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Against a four-man rush or fewer0.03EPA per play expected in the Rams’ favor, on about 71% of dropbacks. Rams +0.22 per play so far (8th of 32, 80 plays); Eagles have allowed −0.03.
Targets to wide receivers0.02EPA per play expected in the Rams’ favor, on about 56% of throws. Rams +0.37 per play so far (10th of 32, 53 plays); Eagles have allowed +0.35.
Quarterback out of the pocket0.03EPA per play expected in the Rams’ favor, on about 17% of dropbacks. Rams +0.20 per play so far (9th of 31, 16 plays); Eagles have allowed −0.20.
Runs up the middle0.01EPA per play expected in the Rams’ favor, on about 29% of runs. Rams +0.05 per play so far (10th of 32, 27 plays); Eagles have allowed +0.08.

Where the Eagles should get stops

Outside the numbers0.01EPA per play expected in the Eagles’ favor, on about 79% of throws. Rams +0.08 per play so far (17th of 32, 97 plays); Eagles have allowed +0.10.
Targets to tight ends0.03EPA per play expected in the Eagles’ favor, on about 28% of throws. Rams +0.01 per play so far (24th of 32, 35 plays); Eagles have allowed +0.22.
Deep (20+)0.06EPA per play expected in the Eagles’ favor, on about 12% of throws. Rams −0.05 per play so far (20th of 24, 14 plays); Eagles have allowed −0.05.

How the Eagles defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Dropback from under center+0.58EPA allowed per play, 31st of 32, on 25 plays. Opponents went there on 26% of dropbacks (6th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Against the blitz+0.66EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 25 plays. Opponents went there on 26% of dropbacks (22nd of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Behind the line−0.03EPA allowed per play, 28th of 32, on 13 plays. Opponents went there on 15% of throws (19th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Eagles defenders to know

58
Jalyx Hunt
Getting home most
5 pressures, 0 sacks
27
Quinyon Mitchell
Most yards allowed in coverage
10 of 16 for 113 yards
24
Andrew Mukuba
Most missed tackles
4 missed, 16 made

When the Eagles have the ball

Sean Mannion calling plays against Chris Shula’s defense.

99LA
Pass defenseRams by 28Passing
71PHI
71LA
Run defenseEagles by 18Rushing
89PHI
68LA
Pass rushEagles by 5Protection
73PHI
96LA
Explosives allowedRams by 22Explosive plays
74PHI
91LA
Red-zone defenseRams by 11Red zone
80PHI

How Sean Mannion attacks

Sean Mannion calls the plays for the Eagles offense. The Eagles run inside on 39% of runs, 2nd fewest; the league average is 55%. They run off tackle on 38% of runs, 3rd most; the league average is 24%. They target tight ends on 16% of throws, 4th fewest; the league average is 23%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Eagles offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On runs up the middle, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Eagles' favor, on about 28% of runs. The Eagles have averaged +0.35 EPA per play there so far (2nd of 32, 11 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On deep throws, 0.08 EPA per play is expected in the Eagles' favor, on about 12% of throws.

How the Rams defense has been beaten so far

Chris Shula calls the Rams defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Rams have allowed +0.08 EPA per play on runs to the right, 28th of 32, on 21 plays. They have allowed +0.01 EPA per play on runs inside, 26th of 32, on 49 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Rams have an edge of their own. On throws outside the numbers, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Rams' favor, on about 81% of throws. The Rams have pressured the quarterback on 21% of dropbacks, 21st of 32. Byron Young leads the Rams pass rush: 8 pressures, 1 sacks. DeVonta Smith is the Eagles starting wide receiver, listed as out (hamstring). Dallas Goedert is the Eagles starting tight end, listed as out (knee). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Runs up the middleNot graded yet

The Eagles will be at or above −0.08 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Eagles throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Eagles spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Rams position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards14th of 32intermediate, 10-1925th of 32short, 0-97th of 32behind the line71Safeties13% of targets88Linebackers16% of targets94Cornerbacks64% of targets84Edge rushers68Interior line

Jalen Hurts with the ball

Time to throw3.26s0.41 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 87 attempts.
Intended air yards8.7How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected−0.1%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Sean Mannion calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Runs inside39%
of runs, 2nd fewestleague 55%
Runs off tackle38%
of runs, 3rd mostleague 24%
Targets tight ends16%
of throws, 4th fewestleague 23%
Runs from under center61%
of runs, 5th fewestleague 69%
Targets wide receivers67%
of throws, 5th mostleague 59%

What Chris Shula calls

Blitzes28%
of dropbacks, 17th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run14%
of runs, 11th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)39%
of runs, 22nd of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Rams

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Brock Purdy (SF)2.69s3.15s in his other games. 34 attempts.
Week 2, Jameis Winston (NYG)2.86s2.55s in his other games. 27 attempts.
Week 3, Bo Nix (DEN)3.03s2.85s in his other games. 34 attempts.

Where the Eagles should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Runs up the middle0.04EPA per play expected in the Eagles’ favor, on about 28% of runs. Eagles +0.35 per play so far (2nd of 32, 11 plays); Rams have allowed −0.02.
Deep (20+)0.08EPA per play expected in the Eagles’ favor, on about 12% of throws. Eagles +1.12 per play so far (5th of 24, 11 plays); Rams have allowed −0.45.
Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)0.01EPA per play expected in the Eagles’ favor, on about 46% of runs. Eagles −0.02 per play so far (12th of 32, 36 plays); Rams have allowed +0.02.
Targets to tight ends0.01EPA per play expected in the Eagles’ favor, on about 20% of throws. Eagles +0.30 per play so far (15th of 32, 13 plays); Rams have allowed −0.38.

Where the Rams should get stops

Outside the numbers0.04EPA per play expected in the Rams’ favor, on about 81% of throws. Eagles −0.04 per play so far (27th of 32, 73 plays); Rams have allowed −0.12.
Play-action0.10EPA per play expected in the Rams’ favor, on about 22% of dropbacks. Eagles −0.45 per play so far (last in the NFL, 19 plays); Rams have allowed −0.26.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.03EPA per play expected in the Rams’ favor, on about 70% of dropbacks. Eagles −0.02 per play so far (24th of 32, 69 plays); Rams have allowed −0.01.

How the Rams defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Runs right+0.08EPA allowed per play, 28th of 32, on 21 plays. Opponents went there on 28% of runs (26th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs inside (guard to guard)+0.01EPA allowed per play, 26th of 32, on 49 plays. Opponents went there on 66% of runs (4th most). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)+0.02EPA allowed per play, 25th of 32, on 29 plays. Opponents went there on 39% of runs (22nd of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Rams defenders to know

0
Byron Young
Getting home most
8 pressures, 1 sacks
37
Quentin Lake
Most yards allowed in coverage
12 of 21 for 77 yards
Lineups and injuries

Rams

Offense

  1. QBMatthew Stafford
  2. WRPuka Nacua
  3. LTAlaric Jackson
  4. LGSteve Avila
  5. CColeman Shelton
  6. RGKevin Dotson
  7. RTWarren McClendon Jr.
  8. TEColby Parkinson questionable
  9. RBKyren Williams
  10. WRDavante Adams
  11. WRJordan Whittington

Defense

  1. LDEKobie Turner
  2. NTPoona Ford
  3. RDEAaron Donald out (next up: Braden Fiske)
  4. WLBByron Young
  5. LILBNate Landman
  6. RILBOmar Speights
  7. SLBDesjuan Johnson
  8. LCBJaylen Watson out (next up: Emmanuel Forbes Jr.)
  9. SSKam Curl
  10. FSKamren Kinchens
  11. RCBTrent McDuffie
  12. NBQuentin Lake

Out or doubtful: Aaron Donald (DT, back), Jaylen Watson (CB, shoulder), Terrance Ferguson (TE, ankle)

Questionable: Colby Parkinson (TE, knee), Josaiah Stewart (LB, groin)

Eagles

Offense

  1. QBJalen Hurts
  2. WRDeVonta Smith out (next up: Hollywood Brown)
  3. LTJordan Mailata
  4. LGCam Jurgens
  5. CDrew Kendall
  6. RGTyler Steen
  7. RTLane Johnson
  8. TEDallas Goedert out (next up: Zach Ertz)
  9. RBSaquon Barkley
  10. WRDontayvion Wicks
  11. WRMakai Lemon

Defense

  1. LDEJalen Carter
  2. RDEMoro Ojomo
  3. WLBNolan Smith Jr.
  4. LILBZack Baun out (next up: Smael Mondon Jr.)
  5. RILBJihaad Campbell
  6. SLBJonathan Greenard
  7. LCBRiq Woolen
  8. SSMarcus Epps out (next up: Michael Carter II)
  9. FSAndrew Mukuba
  10. RCBQuinyon Mitchell
  11. NBCooper DeJean

Out or doubtful: Dallas Goedert (TE, knee), Fred Johnson (T, knee), Marcus Epps (S, groin), Marquise Brown (WR, ankle), Zack Baun (LB, concussion), DeVonta Smith (WR, hamstring)

Questionable: nobody listed

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

top fivetop thirdmiddlebottom third

All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.