Top Performer

Patriots at Bills, Week 4

NE

Patriots

1-2, on the road

64Offense86Defense

BUF

Bills

3-0, at home

98Offense71Defense
Week 4Sun 1:00 PM ETBUF −7Total 49.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Josh McDaniels
Defense called by Zak Kuhr
Patriots team sheet
Offense called by Joe Brady
Defense called by Jim Leonhard
Bills team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Quarterback out of the pocket

Patriots
+0.35

EPA per play, 7th of 31, on 29 plays

Bills
17%

of dropbacks against them, 22nd of 32; +0.37 allowed

What should carry: 0.05 EPA per play in the Patriots’ favor, on about 23% of dropbacks.

Outside the numbers

Bills
+0.46

EPA per play, best in the NFL, on 62 plays

Patriots
79%

of throws against them, 17th of 32; +0.02 allowed

What should carry: 0.07 EPA per play in the Bills’ favor, on about 78% of throws.

When the Patriots have the ball

Josh McDaniels calling plays against Jim Leonhard’s defense.

65NE
PassingBills by 9Pass defense
74BUF
69NE
RushingEvenRun defense
69BUF
71NE
ProtectionBills by 20Pass rush
91BUF
77NE
Explosive playsPatriots by 12Explosives allowed
65BUF
59NE
Red zoneBills by 9Red-zone defense
68BUF

How Josh McDaniels attacks

Josh McDaniels calls the plays for the Patriots offense. The Patriots target tight ends on 15% of throws, 2nd fewest; the league average is 23%. They use pre-snap motion on 40% of runs, 2nd fewest; the league average is 61%. They line up under center on 86% of runs, 3rd most; the league average is 69%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Patriots offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On throws from outside the pocket, 0.05 EPA per play is expected in the Patriots' favor, on about 23% of dropbacks. The Patriots have averaged +0.35 EPA per play there so far (7th of 31, 29 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On runs into a light box, 0.01 EPA per play is expected in the Patriots' favor, on about 40% of runs.

How the Bills defense has been beaten so far

Jim Leonhard calls the Bills defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Bills have allowed +0.24 EPA per play on runs up the middle, last of the 30 teams with enough plays, on 16 plays. They have allowed +0.33 EPA per play on runs into a stacked box, 14th of 15, on 13 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Bills have an edge of their own. On throws outside the numbers, 0.07 EPA per play is expected in the Bills' favor, on about 81% of throws. The Bills have pressured the quarterback on 28% of dropbacks, 5th of 32. Gregory Rousseau leads the Bills pass rush: 14 pressures, 6 sacks. Morgan Moses is the Patriots starting right tackle, listed as questionable (foot). Reggie Gilliam is the Patriots starting fullback, listed as questionable (knee). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Quarterback out of the pocketNot graded yet

The Patriots will be at or above −0.03 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Patriots throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Patriots spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Bills position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards6th of 32intermediate, 10-199th of 32short, 0-927th of 32behind the line79Safeties18% of targets70Linebackers22% of targets68Cornerbacks55% of targets95Edge rushers88Interior line

Drake Maye with the ball

Time to throw3.04s0.20 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 80 attempts.
Intended air yards9.2How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+2.4%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Josh McDaniels calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Targets tight ends15%
of throws, 2nd fewestleague 23%
Motion before the run40%
of runs, 2nd fewestleague 61%
Runs from under center86%
of runs, 3rd mostleague 69%
Runs inside68%
of runs, 3rd mostleague 55%
Runs to the edge11%
of runs, 3rd fewestleague 21%

What Jim Leonhard calls

Blitzes31%
of dropbacks, 15th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run17%
of runs, 9th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)35%
of runs, 26th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Bills

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, C.J. Stroud (HOU)2.79s3.06s in his other games. 38 attempts.
Week 2, Jared Goff (DET)2.94s2.76s in his other games. 38 attempts.
Week 3, Justin Herbert (LAC)2.91s2.80s in his other games. 34 attempts.

Where the Patriots should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Quarterback out of the pocket0.05EPA per play expected in the Patriots’ favor, on about 23% of dropbacks. Patriots +0.35 per play so far (7th of 31, 29 plays); Bills have allowed +0.37.
Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)0.01EPA per play expected in the Patriots’ favor, on about 40% of runs. Patriots −0.02 per play so far (11th of 32, 19 plays); Bills have allowed −0.07.
Runs off tackle0.01EPA per play expected in the Patriots’ favor, on about 23% of runs. Patriots −0.05 per play so far (12th of 32, 15 plays); Bills have allowed −0.04.

Where the Bills should get stops

Outside the numbers0.07EPA per play expected in the Bills’ favor, on about 81% of throws. Patriots −0.15 per play so far (31st of 32, 75 plays); Bills have allowed +0.27.
Passing off motion0.06EPA per play expected in the Bills’ favor, on about 53% of dropbacks. Patriots −0.18 per play so far (29th of 32, 54 plays); Bills have allowed +0.08.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.04EPA per play expected in the Bills’ favor, on about 69% of dropbacks. Patriots −0.08 per play so far (26th of 32, 77 plays); Bills have allowed 0.00.

How the Bills defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Runs up the middle+0.24EPA allowed per play, last of the 30 teams with enough plays, on 16 plays. Opponents went there on 22% of runs (24th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs into a stacked box (8+)+0.33EPA allowed per play, 14th of 15, on 13 plays. Opponents went there on 17% of runs (9th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Quarterback out of the pocket+0.37EPA allowed per play, 28th of 32, on 21 plays. Opponents went there on 17% of dropbacks (22nd of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Bills defenders to know

15
Gregory Rousseau
Getting home most
14 pressures, 6 sacks
23
DeAundre Alford
Most yards allowed in coverage
11 of 19 for 175 yards
22
C.J. Gardner-Johnson
Most missed tackles
4 missed, 14 made

When the Bills have the ball

Joe Brady calling plays against Zak Kuhr’s defense.

93NE
Pass defenseBills by 5Passing
98BUF
62NE
Run defenseBills by 34Rushing
96BUF
79NE
Pass rushPatriots by 10Protection
69BUF
93NE
Explosives allowedBills by 6Explosive plays
99BUF
87NE
Red-zone defenseBills by 4Red zone
91BUF

How Joe Brady attacks

Joe Brady calls the plays for the Bills offense. The Bills line up under center on 38% of dropbacks, most in the NFL; the league average is 22%. They run inside on 73% of runs, most in the NFL; the league average is 55%. They run to the edge on 6% of runs, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 21%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Bills offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On throws outside the numbers, 0.07 EPA per play is expected in the Bills' favor, on about 78% of throws. The Bills have averaged +0.46 EPA per play there so far (best in the NFL, 62 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.07 EPA per play is expected in the Bills' favor, on about 64% of dropbacks.

How the Patriots defense has been beaten so far

Zak Kuhr calls the Patriots defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Patriots have allowed +0.43 EPA per play on play-action passes, 30th of 32, on 30 plays. They have allowed +0.08 EPA per play on runs after pre-snap motion, 30th of 32, on 40 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Patriots have an edge of their own. On runs into a light box, 0.00 EPA per play is expected in the Patriots' favor, on about 45% of runs. The Patriots have pressured the quarterback on 21% of dropbacks, 20th of 32. Elijah Ponder leads the Patriots pass rush: 5 pressures, 1.5 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Outside the numbersNot graded yet

The Bills will be at or above +0.14 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Bills throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Bills spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Patriots position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards5th mostintermediate, 10-198th of 32short, 0-926th of 32behind the line69Safeties19% of targets76Linebackers25% of targets94Cornerbacks54% of targets86Edge rushers66Interior line

Josh Allen with the ball

Time to throw2.98s0.14 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 86 attempts.
Intended air yards9.9How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+1.6%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Joe Brady calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Drops back from under center38%
of dropbacks, most in the NFLleague 22%
Runs inside73%
of runs, most in the NFLleague 55%
Runs to the edge6%
of runs, fewest in the NFLleague 21%
Throws between the numbers28%
of throws, 4th mostleague 21%
Throws deep (20+)17%
of throws, 5th mostleague 12%

What Zak Kuhr calls

Blitzes41%
of dropbacks, 5th mostleague 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run17%
of runs, 8th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)48%
of runs, 13th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Patriots

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Drew Lock (SEA)2.77s2.77s in his other games. 22 attempts.
Week 2, Aaron Rodgers (PIT)2.58s3.06s in his other games. 39 attempts.
Week 3, Trevor Lawrence (JAX)2.71s2.88s in his other games. 29 attempts.

Where the Bills should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Outside the numbers0.07EPA per play expected in the Bills’ favor, on about 78% of throws. Bills +0.46 per play so far (best in the NFL, 62 plays); Patriots have allowed +0.02.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.07EPA per play expected in the Bills’ favor, on about 64% of dropbacks. Bills +0.41 per play so far (3rd of 32, 68 plays); Patriots have allowed +0.03.
Targets to wide receivers0.04EPA per play expected in the Bills’ favor, on about 59% of throws. Bills +0.53 per play so far (5th of 32, 47 plays); Patriots have allowed +0.26.
Passing off motion0.03EPA per play expected in the Bills’ favor, on about 62% of dropbacks. Bills +0.26 per play so far (9th of 32, 67 plays); Patriots have allowed −0.03.

Where the Patriots should get stops

Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)0.00EPA per play expected in the Patriots’ favor, on about 45% of runs. Bills −0.12 per play so far (22nd of 32, 31 plays); Patriots have allowed +0.04.
Dropback from under center0.00EPA per play expected in the Patriots’ favor, on about 33% of dropbacks. Bills +0.11 per play so far (18th of 32, 38 plays); Patriots have allowed +0.40.

How the Patriots defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Play-action+0.43EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 30 plays. Opponents went there on 29% of dropbacks (6th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs off motion+0.08EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 40 plays. Opponents went there on 58% of runs (21st of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs up the middle+0.20EPA allowed per play, 27th of 30, on 17 plays. Opponents went there on 25% of runs (21st of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Patriots defenders to know

91
Elijah Ponder
Getting home most
5 pressures, 1.5 sacks
53
Christian Elliss
Most yards allowed in coverage
10 of 14 for 116 yards
50
Gabe Jacas
Most missed tackles
2 missed, 11 made
Lineups and injuries

Patriots

Offense

  1. QBDrake Maye
  2. WRRomeo Doubs
  3. LTWill Campbell
  4. LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
  5. CJared Wilson
  6. RGWalter Rouse
  7. RTMorgan Moses questionable
  8. TEHunter Henry
  9. RBRhamondre Stevenson
  10. FBReggie Gilliam questionable
  11. WRDeMario Douglas
  12. WRMack Hollins

Defense

  1. LDEChristian Barmore out (next up: Leonard Taylor III)
  2. NTCory Durden
  3. RDEMilton Williams
  4. WLBElijah Ponder
  5. LILBChristian Elliss questionable
  6. RILBRobert Spillane
  7. SLBDre'Mont Jones questionable
  8. LCBCarlton Davis III
  9. SSCraig Woodson questionable
  10. FSKevin Byard
  11. RCBChristian Gonzalez out (next up: Karon Prunty)
  12. NBMarcus Jones

Out or doubtful: Christian Barmore (DT, shoulder), Brenden Schooler (S, back), Christian Gonzalez (CB, shoulder)

Questionable: Morgan Moses (T, foot), Dre'Mont Jones (LB, shoulder), Reggie Gilliam (FB, knee), Christian Elliss (LB, chest), Craig Woodson (S, shoulder), Channing Canada (CB, hamstring), Eli Raridon (TE, thigh)

Bills

Offense

  1. QBJosh Allen
  2. WRDJ Moore
  3. LTDion Dawkins
  4. LGAlec Anderson
  5. CConnor McGovern
  6. RGO'Cyrus Torrence
  7. RTSpencer Brown
  8. TEDalton Kincaid
  9. RBJames Cook III
  10. WRKhalil Shakir
  11. WRKeon Coleman

Defense

  1. LDET.J. Sanders doubtful (next up: Landon Jackson)
  2. NTDeone Walker
  3. RDEEd Oliver
  4. WLBGreg Rousseau
  5. LILBDorian Williams
  6. RILBTerrel Bernard
  7. SLBBradley Chubb
  8. LCBChristian Benford questionable
  9. SSCole Bishop
  10. FSC.J. Gardner-Johnson
  11. RCBMaxwell Hairston
  12. NBDee Alford

Out or doubtful: T.J. Sanders (DE, illness)

Questionable: Christian Benford (CB, toe), Ray Davis (RB, hamstring)

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

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All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.