Top Performer

Chiefs at Raiders, Week 4

KC

Chiefs

3-0, on the road

95Offense93Defense

LV

Raiders

3-0, at home

78Offense98Defense
Week 4Sun 4:25 PM ETKC −4.5Total 47.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Andy Reid
Defense called by Steve Spagnuolo
Chiefs team sheet
Offense called by Klint Kubiak
Defense called by Rob Leonard
Raiders team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Outside the numbers

Chiefs
+0.45

EPA per play, 4th of 32, on 73 plays

Raiders
88%

of throws against them, 2nd most; +0.09 allowed

What should carry: 0.07 EPA per play in the Chiefs’ favor, on about 80% of throws.

Outside the numbers

Raiders
+0.36

EPA per play, 7th of 32, on 72 plays

Chiefs
79%

of throws against them, 18th of 32; −0.17 allowed

What should carry: 0.05 EPA per play in the Raiders’ favor, on about 79% of throws.

When the Chiefs have the ball

Andy Reid calling plays against Rob Leonard’s defense.

91KC
PassingRaiders by 7Pass defense
98LV
99KC
RushingChiefs by 4Run defense
95LV
96KC
ProtectionRaiders by 1Pass rush
97LV
94KC
Explosive playsChiefs by 5Explosives allowed
89LV
65KC
Red zoneChiefs by 3Red-zone defense
62LV

How Andy Reid attacks

Andy Reid calls the plays for the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs target wide receivers on 47% of throws, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 59%. They use play-action on 38% of dropbacks, most in the NFL; the league average is 25%. They throw a screen on 19% of dropbacks, most in the NFL; the league average is 8%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Chiefs offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On throws outside the numbers, 0.07 EPA per play is expected in the Chiefs' favor, on about 80% of throws. The Chiefs have averaged +0.45 EPA per play there so far (4th of 32, 73 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws to tight ends, 0.08 EPA per play is expected in the Chiefs' favor, on about 25% of throws.

How the Raiders defense has been beaten so far

Rob Leonard calls the Raiders defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Raiders have allowed +0.58 EPA per play on dropbacks from under center, 30th of 32, on 16 plays. They have allowed +0.07 EPA per play on runs off tackle, 28th of 32, on 13 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Raiders have an edge of their own. On deep throws, 0.06 EPA per play is expected in the Raiders' favor, on about 12% of throws. The Raiders have pressured the quarterback on 33% of dropbacks, 2nd of 32. Maxx Crosby leads the Raiders pass rush: 13 pressures, 1.5 sacks. Josh Simmons is the Chiefs starting left tackle, listed as out (back). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Outside the numbersNot graded yet

The Chiefs will be at or above +0.14 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 5 hours before kickoff.

Where the Chiefs throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Chiefs spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Raiders position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards20th of 32intermediate, 10-19fewest in the NFLshort, 0-917th of 32behind the line71Safeties19% of targets77Linebackers25% of targets94Cornerbacks52% of targets98Edge rushers87Interior line

Patrick Mahomes with the ball

Time to throw2.60s0.24 seconds quicker than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 98 attempts.
Intended air yards5.8How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected−0.1%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Andy Reid calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Targets wide receivers47%
of throws, fewest in the NFLleague 59%
Play-action38%
of dropbacks, most in the NFLleague 25%
Screens19%
of dropbacks, most in the NFLleague 8%
Throws intermediate (10-19)13%
of throws, fewest in the NFLleague 22%
Runs off tackle15%
of runs, 2nd fewestleague 24%

What Rob Leonard calls

Blitzes21%
of dropbacks, 4th fewestleague 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run7%
of runs, 19th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)62%
of runs, 3rd mostleague 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Raiders

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Malik Willis (MIA)3.21s2.80s in his other games. 27 attempts.
Week 2, Justin Herbert (LAC)2.86s2.83s in his other games. 27 attempts.
Week 3, Tyler Shough (NO)2.68s2.65s in his other games. 42 attempts.

Where the Chiefs should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Outside the numbers0.07EPA per play expected in the Chiefs’ favor, on about 80% of throws. Chiefs +0.45 per play so far (4th of 32, 73 plays); Raiders have allowed +0.09.
Targets to tight ends0.08EPA per play expected in the Chiefs’ favor, on about 25% of throws. Chiefs +0.75 per play so far (best in the NFL, 25 plays); Raiders have allowed +0.26.
Quarterback out of the pocket0.08EPA per play expected in the Chiefs’ favor, on about 22% of dropbacks. Chiefs +0.51 per play so far (2nd of 31, 28 plays); Raiders have allowed −0.27.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.02EPA per play expected in the Chiefs’ favor, on about 74% of dropbacks. Chiefs +0.19 per play so far (10th of 32, 82 plays); Raiders have allowed +0.05.

Where the Raiders should get stops

Deep (20+)0.06EPA per play expected in the Raiders’ favor, on about 12% of throws. Chiefs −0.04 per play so far (19th of 24, 10 plays); Raiders have allowed −0.68.
Targets to wide receivers0.01EPA per play expected in the Raiders’ favor, on about 54% of throws. Chiefs +0.19 per play so far (18th of 32, 43 plays); Raiders have allowed −0.02.
Runs off motion0.00EPA per play expected in the Raiders’ favor, on about 60% of runs. Chiefs −0.11 per play so far (19th of 32, 46 plays); Raiders have allowed −0.33.

How the Raiders defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Dropback from under center+0.58EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 16 plays. Opponents went there on 14% of dropbacks (3rd fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs off tackle+0.07EPA allowed per play, 28th of 32, on 13 plays. Opponents went there on 19% of runs (22nd of 32). Some of this carries
Short (0-9 air yards)+0.27EPA allowed per play, 26th of 32, on 34 plays. Opponents went there on 35% of throws (fewest in the NFL). History says a result like this does not carry.

Raiders defenders to know

98
Maxx Crosby
Getting home most
13 pressures, 1.5 sacks
17
Nakobe Dean
Most yards allowed in coverage
12 of 13 for 114 yards

When the Raiders have the ball

Klint Kubiak calling plays against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.

94KC
Pass defenseChiefs by 8Passing
86LV
81KC
Run defenseChiefs by 13Rushing
68LV
65KC
Pass rushRaiders by 24Protection
89LV
90KC
Explosives allowedChiefs by 26Explosive plays
64LV
77KC
Red-zone defenseChiefs by 15Red zone
62LV

How Klint Kubiak attacks

Klint Kubiak calls the plays for the Raiders offense. The Raiders line up under center on 32% of dropbacks, 4th most; the league average is 22%. They use pre-snap motion on 68% of dropbacks, 5th most; the league average is 57%. They target tight ends on 32% of throws, 5th most; the league average is 23%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Raiders offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On throws outside the numbers, 0.05 EPA per play is expected in the Raiders' favor, on about 79% of throws. The Raiders have averaged +0.36 EPA per play there so far (7th of 32, 72 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On passes after pre-snap motion, 0.05 EPA per play is expected in the Raiders' favor, on about 63% of dropbacks.

How the Chiefs defense has been beaten so far

Steve Spagnuolo calls the Chiefs defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Chiefs have allowed +0.49 EPA per play on dropbacks from under center, 29th of 32, on 21 plays. They have allowed +0.30 EPA per play on play-action passes, 24th of 32, on 35 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Chiefs have an edge of their own. On runs after pre-snap motion, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Chiefs' favor, on about 60% of runs. The Chiefs have pressured the quarterback on 17% of dropbacks, 29th of 32. George Karlaftis III leads the Chiefs pass rush: 5 pressures, 0 sacks. Jackson Powers-Johnson is the Raiders starting right guard, listed as out (groin). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Outside the numbersNot graded yet

The Raiders will be at or above +0.14 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 5 hours before kickoff.

Where the Raiders throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Raiders spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Chiefs position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards21st of 32intermediate, 10-1912th of 32short, 0-95th mostbehind the line85Safeties20% of targets91Linebackers16% of targets91Cornerbacks55% of targets77Edge rushers62Interior line

Kirk Cousins with the ball

Time to throw2.81sAbout league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 92 attempts.
Intended air yards8.7How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+3.2%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Klint Kubiak calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Drops back from under center32%
of dropbacks, 4th mostleague 22%
Motion before the throw68%
of dropbacks, 5th mostleague 57%
Targets tight ends32%
of throws, 5th mostleague 23%
Targets wide receivers49%
of throws, 5th fewestleague 59%
Throws short (0-9 yards)55%
of throws, 5th mostleague 48%

What Steve Spagnuolo calls

Blitzes31%
of dropbacks, 14th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run0%
of runs, fewest in the NFLleague 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)44%
of runs, 15th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Chiefs

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Bo Nix (DEN)2.98s2.89s in his other games. 28 attempts.
Week 2, Daniel Jones (IND)2.80s2.80s in his other games. 31 attempts.
Week 3, Malik Willis (MIA)2.68s3.10s in his other games. 36 attempts.

Where the Raiders should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Outside the numbers0.05EPA per play expected in the Raiders’ favor, on about 79% of throws. Raiders +0.36 per play so far (7th of 32, 72 plays); Chiefs have allowed −0.17.
Passing off motion0.05EPA per play expected in the Raiders’ favor, on about 63% of dropbacks. Raiders +0.35 per play so far (2nd of 32, 68 plays); Chiefs have allowed +0.12.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.02EPA per play expected in the Raiders’ favor, on about 69% of dropbacks. Raiders +0.19 per play so far (9th of 32, 70 plays); Chiefs have allowed −0.14.
Targets to tight ends0.04EPA per play expected in the Raiders’ favor, on about 28% of throws. Raiders +0.50 per play so far (6th of 32, 28 plays); Chiefs have allowed +0.16.

Where the Chiefs should get stops

Runs off motion0.02EPA per play expected in the Chiefs’ favor, on about 60% of runs. Raiders −0.26 per play so far (28th of 32, 47 plays); Chiefs have allowed −0.05.
Runs up the middle0.02EPA per play expected in the Chiefs’ favor, on about 32% of runs. Raiders −0.27 per play so far (24th of 32, 32 plays); Chiefs have allowed −0.16.
Runs off tackle0.01EPA per play expected in the Chiefs’ favor, on about 20% of runs. Raiders −0.20 per play so far (19th of 32, 14 plays); Chiefs have allowed −0.25.

How the Chiefs defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Dropback from under center+0.49EPA allowed per play, 29th of 32, on 21 plays. Opponents went there on 19% of dropbacks (20th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Play-action+0.30EPA allowed per play, 24th of 32, on 35 plays. Opponents went there on 32% of dropbacks (3rd most). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs from under center+0.01EPA allowed per play, 24th of 32, on 46 plays. Opponents went there on 68% of runs (21st of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Chiefs defenders to know

56
George Karlaftis III
Getting home most
5 pressures, 0 sacks
38
L'Jarius Sneed
Most yards allowed in coverage
17 of 22 for 159 yards
32
Nick Bolton
Most missed tackles
4 missed, 28 made
Lineups and injuries

Chiefs

Offense

  1. QBPatrick Mahomes
  2. WRRashee Rice
  3. LTJosh Simmons out (next up: Kahlil Benson)
  4. LGKingsley Suamataia
  5. CCreed Humphrey
  6. RGTrey Smith
  7. RTKahlil Benson
  8. TETravis Kelce
  9. RBKenneth Walker III
  10. FBBen VanSumeren
  11. WRXavier Worthy
  12. WRTyquan Thornton

Defense

  1. LDEGeorge Karlaftis
  2. LDTChris Jones
  3. RDTKhyiris Tonga
  4. RDEFelix Anudike-Uzomah
  5. WLBDrue Tranquill
  6. MLBNick Bolton
  7. SLBJeffrey Bassa
  8. LCBNohl Williams
  9. SSChamarri Conner
  10. FSAlohi Gilman
  11. RCBMansoor Delane
  12. NBL'Jarius Sneed

Out or doubtful: Josh Simmons (T, back)

Questionable: nobody listed

Raiders

Offense

  1. QBKirk Cousins
  2. WRTre Tucker
  3. LTKolton Miller
  4. LGSpencer Burford
  5. CTyler Linderbaum
  6. RGJackson Powers-Johnson out (next up: Caleb Rogers)
  7. RTDJ Glaze
  8. TEBrock Bowers
  9. RBAshton Jeanty
  10. FBConnor Heyward
  11. WRJalen Nailor
  12. WRCody White

Defense

  1. LDEJonah Laulu
  2. NTAdam Butler
  3. RDETonka Hemingway
  4. WLBMaxx Crosby
  5. LILBNakobe Dean
  6. RILBQuay Walker
  7. SLBKwity Paye
  8. LCBEric Stokes
  9. SSJeremy Chinn
  10. FSTreydan Stukes
  11. RCBHezekiah Masses
  12. NBTaron Johnson

Out or doubtful: Jackson Powers-Johnson (G, groin)

Questionable: Aidan O'Connell (QB, not injury related - personal matter)

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

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All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.