Top Performer

Broncos at 49ers, Week 4

DEN

Broncos

2-1, on the road

71Offense73Defense

SF

49ers

3-0, at home

99Offense81Defense
Week 4Sun 4:25 PM ETSF −3Total 48.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Davis Webb
Defense called by Vance Joseph
Broncos team sheet
Offense called by Kyle Shanahan
Defense called by Raheem Morris
49ers team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Targets to tight ends

Broncos
+0.40

EPA per play, 10th of 32, on 16 plays

49ers
25%

of throws against them, 11th of 32; −0.02 allowed

What should carry: 0.03 EPA per play in the Broncos’ favor, on about 21% of throws.

Passing off motion

49ers
+0.63

EPA per play, best in the NFL, on 72 plays

Broncos
58%

of dropbacks against them, 15th of 32; −0.05 allowed

What should carry: 0.11 EPA per play in the 49ers’ favor, on about 71% of dropbacks.

When the Broncos have the ball

Davis Webb calling plays against Raheem Morris’s defense.

69DEN
Passing49ers by 8Pass defense
77SF
86DEN
RushingBroncos by 4Run defense
82SF
82DEN
ProtectionBroncos by 2Pass rush
80SF
72DEN
Explosive plays49ers by 27Explosives allowed
99SF
68DEN
Red zone49ers by 12Red-zone defense
80SF

How Davis Webb attacks

Davis Webb calls the plays for the Broncos offense. The Broncos throw between the numbers on 11% of throws, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 21%. They run to the edge on 34% of runs, 2nd most; the league average is 21%. They line up under center on 14% of dropbacks, 3rd fewest; the league average is 22%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Broncos offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On throws to tight ends, 0.03 EPA per play is expected in the Broncos' favor, on about 21% of throws. The Broncos have averaged +0.40 EPA per play there so far (10th of 32, 16 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On runs off tackle, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Broncos' favor, on about 20% of runs.

How the 49ers defense has been beaten so far

Raheem Morris calls the 49ers defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The 49ers have allowed +0.11 EPA per play on throws behind the line of scrimmage, last in the NFL, on 17 plays. They have allowed +0.05 EPA per play on runs off tackle, 27th of 32, on 12 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The 49ers have an edge of their own. On throws outside the numbers, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the 49ers' favor, on about 83% of throws. The 49ers have pressured the quarterback on 25% of dropbacks, 9th of 32. Osa Odighizuwa leads the 49ers pass rush: 6 pressures, 0 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Targets to tight endsNot graded yet

The Broncos will be at or above +0.22 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 5 hours before kickoff.

Where the Broncos throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Broncos spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the 49ers position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards23rd of 32intermediate, 10-193rd fewestshort, 0-912th of 32behind the line92Safeties15% of targets80Linebackers29% of targets86Cornerbacks55% of targets78Edge rushers84Interior line

Bo Nix with the ball

Time to throw2.92s0.07 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 93 attempts.
Intended air yards6.9How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected−3.9%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Davis Webb calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Throws between the numbers11%
of throws, fewest in the NFLleague 21%
Runs to the edge34%
of runs, 2nd mostleague 21%
Drops back from under center14%
of dropbacks, 3rd fewestleague 22%
Throws intermediate (10-19)14%
of throws, 3rd fewestleague 22%
Runs off tackle16%
of runs, 5th fewestleague 24%

What Raheem Morris calls

Blitzes26%
of dropbacks, 20th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run5%
of runs, 23rd of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)41%
of runs, 19th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the 49ers

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Matthew Stafford (LA)2.87s2.74s in his other games. 25 attempts.
Week 2, Malik Willis (MIA)2.98s2.91s in his other games. 23 attempts.
Week 3, Jacoby Brissett (ARI)2.62s2.62s in his other games. 52 attempts.

Where the Broncos should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Targets to tight ends0.03EPA per play expected in the Broncos’ favor, on about 21% of throws. Broncos +0.40 per play so far (10th of 32, 16 plays); 49ers have allowed −0.02.
Runs off tackle0.02EPA per play expected in the Broncos’ favor, on about 20% of runs. Broncos −0.06 per play so far (13th of 32, 10 plays); 49ers have allowed +0.05.
Runs up the middle0.01EPA per play expected in the Broncos’ favor, on about 33% of runs. Broncos +0.03 per play so far (12th of 32, 19 plays); 49ers have allowed +0.13.
Runs off motion0.00EPA per play expected in the Broncos’ favor, on about 67% of runs. Broncos −0.06 per play so far (14th of 32, 44 plays); 49ers have allowed −0.09.

Where the 49ers should get stops

Outside the numbers0.04EPA per play expected in the 49ers’ favor, on about 83% of throws. Broncos −0.02 per play so far (24th of 32, 83 plays); 49ers have allowed +0.11.
Targets to wide receivers0.05EPA per play expected in the 49ers’ favor, on about 57% of throws. Broncos −0.05 per play so far (30th of 32, 50 plays); 49ers have allowed +0.23.
Against the blitz0.04EPA per play expected in the 49ers’ favor, on about 29% of dropbacks. Broncos −0.40 per play so far (30th of 32, 31 plays); 49ers have allowed −0.13.

How the 49ers defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Behind the line+0.11EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 17 plays. Opponents went there on 17% of throws (17th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs off tackle+0.05EPA allowed per play, 27th of 32, on 12 plays. Opponents went there on 15% of runs (4th fewest). Some of this carries
Runs up the middle+0.13EPA allowed per play, 25th of 30, on 34 plays. Opponents went there on 42% of runs (most in the NFL). History says a result like this does not carry.

49ers defenders to know

92
Osa Odighizuwa
Getting home most
6 pressures, 0 sacks
20
Upton Stout
Most yards allowed in coverage
9 of 15 for 156 yards
57
Dre Greenlaw
Most missed tackles
4 missed, 22 made

When the 49ers have the ball

Kyle Shanahan calling plays against Vance Joseph’s defense.

86DEN
Pass defense49ers by 13Passing
99SF
59DEN
Run defense49ers by 28Rushing
87SF
82DEN
Pass rush49ers by 17Protection
99SF
74DEN
Explosives allowed49ers by 22Explosive plays
96SF
90DEN
Red-zone defense49ers by 8Red zone
98SF

How Kyle Shanahan attacks

Kyle Shanahan calls the plays for the 49ers offense. The 49ers target running backs on 29% of throws, most in the NFL; the league average is 18%. They line up under center on 36% of dropbacks, 2nd most; the league average is 22%. They use pre-snap motion on 81% of dropbacks, 2nd most; the league average is 57%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the 49ers offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On passes after pre-snap motion, 0.11 EPA per play is expected in the 49ers' favor, on about 71% of dropbacks. The 49ers have averaged +0.63 EPA per play there so far (best in the NFL, 72 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws to wide receivers, 0.11 EPA per play is expected in the 49ers' favor, on about 52% of throws.

How the Broncos defense has been beaten so far

Vance Joseph calls the Broncos defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Broncos have allowed +0.67 EPA per play on runs into a stacked box, last of the 15 teams with enough plays, on 15 plays. They have allowed +0.21 EPA per play on runs from under center, last in the NFL, on 53 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Broncos have pressured the quarterback on 23% of dropbacks, 14th of 32. Zach Allen leads the Broncos pass rush: 10 pressures, 3 sacks. Mike Evans is the 49ers starting wide receiver, listed as questionable (ribs). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Passing off motionNot graded yet

The 49ers will be at or above +0.11 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 5 hours before kickoff.

Where the 49ers throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the 49ers spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Broncos position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards4th fewestintermediate, 10-193rd mostshort, 0-923rd of 32behind the line87Safeties19% of targets74Linebackers24% of targets72Cornerbacks47% of targets68Edge rushers87Interior line

Brock Purdy with the ball

Time to throw2.96s0.12 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 83 attempts.
Intended air yards7.5How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+7.5%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Kyle Shanahan calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Targets running backs29%
of throws, most in the NFLleague 18%
Drops back from under center36%
of dropbacks, 2nd mostleague 22%
Motion before the throw81%
of dropbacks, 2nd mostleague 57%
Targets wide receivers48%
of throws, 2nd fewestleague 59%
Throws intermediate (10-19)30%
of throws, 3rd mostleague 22%

What Vance Joseph calls

Blitzes38%
of dropbacks, 6th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run19%
of runs, 4th mostleague 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)38%
of runs, 24th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Broncos

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Patrick Mahomes (KC)2.27s2.73s in his other games. 27 attempts.
Week 2, Trevor Lawrence (JAX)2.80s2.83s in his other games. 29 attempts.
Week 3, Matthew Stafford (LA)2.80s2.73s in his other games. 55 attempts.

Where the 49ers should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Passing off motion0.11EPA per play expected in the 49ers’ favor, on about 71% of dropbacks. 49ers +0.63 per play so far (best in the NFL, 72 plays); Broncos have allowed −0.05.
Targets to wide receivers0.11EPA per play expected in the 49ers’ favor, on about 52% of throws. 49ers +1.01 per play so far (best in the NFL, 38 plays); Broncos have allowed +0.10.
Outside the numbers0.07EPA per play expected in the 49ers’ favor, on about 80% of throws. 49ers +0.45 per play so far (3rd of 32, 62 plays); Broncos have allowed +0.05.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.06EPA per play expected in the 49ers’ favor, on about 66% of dropbacks. 49ers +0.39 per play so far (4th of 32, 64 plays); Broncos have allowed +0.05.

How the Broncos defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Runs into a stacked box (8+)+0.67EPA allowed per play, last of the 15 teams with enough plays, on 15 plays. Opponents went there on 19% of runs (4th most). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs from under center+0.21EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 53 plays. Opponents went there on 69% of runs (20th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs up the middle+0.21EPA allowed per play, 29th of 30, on 22 plays. Opponents went there on 29% of runs (17th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Broncos defenders to know

99
Zach Allen
Getting home most
10 pressures, 3 sacks
21
Riley Moss
Most yards allowed in coverage
10 of 20 for 137 yards
49
Alex Singleton
Most missed tackles
6 missed, 33 made
Lineups and injuries

Broncos

Offense

  1. QBBo Nix
  2. WRJaylen Waddle
  3. LTGarett Bolles
  4. LGBen Powers
  5. CLuke Wattenberg
  6. RGQuinn Meinerz
  7. RTMike McGlinchey
  8. TEEvan Engram
  9. RBJ.K. Dobbins
  10. FBAdam Prentice
  11. WRCourtland Sutton
  12. WRPat Bryant

Defense

  1. LDEZach Allen
  2. NTD.J. Jones
  3. RDEEyioma Uwazurike
  4. WLBJonah Elliss
  5. LILBAlex Singleton
  6. RILBJustin Strnad
  7. SLBNik Bonitto
  8. LCBPat Surtain II
  9. SSTalanoa Hufanga
  10. FSBrandon Jones
  11. RCBRiley Moss
  12. NBJa'Quan McMillian

Out or doubtful: Dondrea Tillman (LB, hamstring)

Questionable: nobody listed

49ers

Offense

  1. QBBrock Purdy
  2. WRMike Evans questionable
  3. LTTrent Williams
  4. LGConnor Colby
  5. CJake Brendel
  6. RGDominick Puni
  7. RTColton McKivitz
  8. TEGeorge Kittle
  9. RBChristian McCaffrey
  10. FBKyle Juszczyk
  11. WRDeebo Samuel
  12. WRBrandin Cooks

Defense

  1. LDEKeion White questionable
  2. LDTOsa Odighizuwa
  3. RDTGracen Halton
  4. RDENick Bosa out (next up: Ogbo Okoronkwo)
  5. WLBDre Greenlaw questionable
  6. MLBFred Warner
  7. SLBJaden Dugger questionable
  8. LCBRenardo Green
  9. SSMarques Sigle
  10. FSJi'Ayir Brown
  11. RCBDeommodore Lenoir
  12. NBUpton Stout

Out or doubtful: Nick Bosa (DE, knee), Mykel Williams (DE, knee), James Thompson Jr. (DT, ankle)

Questionable: Mike Evans (WR, ribs), Dre Greenlaw (LB, quadricep), Keion White (DE, hamstring), Jaden Dugger (LB, shoulder)

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

top fivetop thirdmiddlebottom third

All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.