Top Performer

Jets at Bears, Week 4

NYJ

Jets

1-2, on the road

85Offense84Defense

CHI

Bears

2-1, at home

90Offense87Defense
Week 4Sun 1:00 PM ETCHI −3.5Total 43.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Frank Reich
Defense called by Aaron Glenn
Jets team sheet
Offense called by Ben Johnson
Defense called by Dennis Allen
Bears team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Outside the numbers

Jets
+0.37

EPA per play, 6th of 32, on 86 plays

Bears
77%

of throws against them, 20th of 32; +0.07 allowed

What should carry: 0.05 EPA per play in the Jets’ favor, on about 80% of throws.

Passing off motion

Bears
+0.35

EPA per play, 3rd of 32, on 55 plays

Jets
64%

of dropbacks against them, 7th of 32; +0.02 allowed

What should carry: 0.05 EPA per play in the Bears’ favor, on about 52% of dropbacks.

When the Jets have the ball

Frank Reich calling plays against Dennis Allen’s defense.

87NYJ
PassingBears by 3Pass defense
90CHI
67NYJ
RushingBears by 1Run defense
68CHI
82NYJ
ProtectionBears by 10Pass rush
92CHI
82NYJ
Explosive playsJets by 11Explosives allowed
71CHI
76NYJ
Red zoneJets by 16Red-zone defense
60CHI

How Frank Reich attacks

Frank Reich calls the plays for the Jets offense. The Jets use pre-snap motion on 39% of dropbacks, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 57%. They throw short on 56% of throws, 4th most; the league average is 48%. They throw to intermediate depth on 16% of throws, 4th fewest; the league average is 22%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Jets offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On throws outside the numbers, 0.05 EPA per play is expected in the Jets' favor, on about 80% of throws. The Jets have averaged +0.37 EPA per play there so far (6th of 32, 86 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws to wide receivers, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Jets' favor, on about 58% of throws.

How the Bears defense has been beaten so far

Dennis Allen calls the Bears defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Bears have allowed +0.12 EPA per play on runs off tackle, 30th of 32, on 20 plays. They have allowed +0.03 EPA per play on early-down runs, 29th of 32, on 59 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Bears have an edge of their own. On runs into a light box, 0.03 EPA per play is expected in the Bears' favor, on about 42% of runs. The Bears have pressured the quarterback on 33% of dropbacks, 3rd of 32. Dayo Odeyingbo leads the Bears pass rush: 8 pressures, 2 sacks. Kenyon Sadiq is the Jets starting tight end, listed as questionable (back). Breece Hall is the Jets starting running back, listed as out (quadricep). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Outside the numbersNot graded yet

The Jets will be at or above +0.14 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Jets throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Jets spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Bears position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards17th of 32intermediate, 10-194th fewestshort, 0-94th mostbehind the line98Safeties18% of targets83Linebackers25% of targets63Cornerbacks57% of targets96Edge rushers81Interior line

Geno Smith with the ball

Time to throw2.94s0.10 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 102 attempts.
Intended air yards7.6How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+12.9%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Frank Reich calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Motion before the throw39%
of dropbacks, fewest in the NFLleague 57%
Throws short (0-9 yards)56%
of throws, 4th mostleague 48%
Throws intermediate (10-19)16%
of throws, 4th fewestleague 22%
Play-action20%
of dropbacks, 25th of 32league 25%
Throws between the numbers15%
of throws, 25th of 32league 21%

What Dennis Allen calls

Blitzes42%
of dropbacks, 4th mostleague 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run23%
of runs, most in the NFLleague 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)37%
of runs, 25th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Bears

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Bryce Young (CAR)3.02s3.02s in his other games. 37 attempts.
Week 2, Carson Wentz (MIN)2.47s2.76s in his other games. 20 attempts.
Week 3, Jalen Hurts (PHI)2.89s3.41s in his other games. 25 attempts.

Where the Jets should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Outside the numbers0.05EPA per play expected in the Jets’ favor, on about 80% of throws. Jets +0.37 per play so far (6th of 32, 86 plays); Bears have allowed +0.07.
Targets to wide receivers0.04EPA per play expected in the Jets’ favor, on about 58% of throws. Jets +0.55 per play so far (4th of 32, 54 plays); Bears have allowed +0.05.
Deep (20+)0.19EPA per play expected in the Jets’ favor, on about 12% of throws. Jets +1.99 per play so far (best of the 24 teams with enough plays, 11 plays); Bears have allowed +0.81.
Play-action0.07EPA per play expected in the Jets’ favor, on about 23% of dropbacks. Jets +0.48 per play so far (2nd of 32, 24 plays); Bears have allowed +0.08.

Where the Bears should get stops

Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)0.03EPA per play expected in the Bears’ favor, on about 42% of runs. Jets −0.34 per play so far (30th of 32, 25 plays); Bears have allowed −0.01.
Runs off motion0.02EPA per play expected in the Bears’ favor, on about 63% of runs. Jets −0.25 per play so far (27th of 32, 50 plays); Bears have allowed +0.01.
Quarterback out of the pocket0.02EPA per play expected in the Bears’ favor, on about 16% of dropbacks. Jets −0.15 per play so far (19th of 31, 14 plays); Bears have allowed +0.14.

How the Bears defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Runs off tackle+0.12EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 20 plays. Opponents went there on 33% of runs (4th most). Some of this carries
Early-down runs+0.03EPA allowed per play, 29th of 32, on 59 plays. Opponents went there on 95% of runs (most in the NFL). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs left+0.16EPA allowed per play, 28th of 32, on 25 plays. Opponents went there on 41% of runs (8th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Bears defenders to know

55
Dayo Odeyingbo
Getting home most
8 pressures, 2 sacks
1
Jaylon Johnson
Most yards allowed in coverage
14 of 17 for 233 yards
53
T.J. Edwards
Most missed tackles
4 missed, 8 made

When the Bears have the ball

Ben Johnson calling plays against Aaron Glenn’s defense.

Caleb Williams is ruled out, and Tyson Bagent is expected to start. Every Bears offensive number on this sheet was produced with Caleb Williams playing, so read it as a description of that offense, not of this one.

80NYJ
Pass defenseBears by 9Passing
89CHI
86NYJ
Run defenseBears by 5Rushing
91CHI
83NYJ
Pass rushJets by 9Protection
74CHI
95NYJ
Explosives allowedJets by 5Explosive plays
90CHI
63NYJ
Red-zone defenseBears by 14Red zone
77CHI

How Ben Johnson attacks

Caleb Williams is ruled out. Tyson Bagent is next on the depth chart at quarterback. Every number below was produced with the listed starter playing, so it describes that offense and not this one. Ben Johnson calls the plays for the Bears offense. The Bears line up under center on 88% of runs, most in the NFL; the league average is 69%. They run off tackle on 40% of runs, 2nd most; the league average is 24%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

These edges were measured with the quarterback who is now out. This is where the Bears offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On passes after pre-snap motion, 0.05 EPA per play is expected in the Bears' favor, on about 52% of dropbacks. The Bears have averaged +0.35 EPA per play there so far (3rd of 32, 55 plays). EPA is expected points added.

How the Jets defense has been beaten so far

Aaron Glenn calls the Jets defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Jets have allowed +0.06 EPA per play on throws behind the line of scrimmage, 30th of 32, on 17 plays. They have allowed +0.33 EPA per play on throws to running backs, 29th of 32, on 19 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Jets have an edge of their own. On runs off tackle, 0.06 EPA per play is expected in the Jets' favor, on about 30% of runs. The Jets have pressured the quarterback on 21% of dropbacks, 19th of 32. David Bailey leads the Jets pass rush: 5 pressures, 2 sacks. Caleb Williams is the Bears starting quarterback, listed as out (hamstring). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

Passing off motionScratched

Withdrawn before kickoff and not graded. Caleb Williams was ruled out, and the call was made on numbers the offense produced with him at quarterback. The call stays on the record as it was written, 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Bears throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Bears spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Jets position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards19th of 32intermediate, 10-1916th of 32short, 0-914th of 32behind the line90Safeties23% of targets72Linebackers28% of targets81Cornerbacks45% of targets76Edge rushers84Interior line

Tyson Bagent with the ball

Time to throw0.00s2.84 seconds quicker than the league average of 2.84, over 0 games and 0 attempts.
Intended air yards0.0How far downfield his average throw travels.

What Ben Johnson calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Runs from under center88%
of runs, most in the NFLleague 69%
Runs off tackle40%
of runs, 2nd mostleague 24%
Throws between the numbers30%
of throws, 2nd mostleague 21%
Runs inside43%
of runs, 5th fewestleague 55%
Motion before the run47%
of runs, 5th fewestleague 61%

What Aaron Glenn calls

Blitzes35%
of dropbacks, 11th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run6%
of runs, 22nd of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)48%
of runs, 12th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Jets

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Cam Ward (TEN)2.90s2.84s in his other games. 32 attempts.
Week 2, Jordan Love (GB)2.30s2.55s in his other games. 29 attempts.
Week 3, Jared Goff (DET)2.89s2.80s in his other games. 32 attempts.

Where the Bears should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Passing off motion0.05EPA per play expected in the Bears’ favor, on about 52% of dropbacks. Bears +0.35 per play so far (3rd of 32, 55 plays); Jets have allowed +0.02.
Runs up the middle0.08EPA per play expected in the Bears’ favor, on about 24% of runs. Bears +0.70 per play so far (best in the NFL, 8 plays); Jets have allowed +0.06.
Runs off motion0.03EPA per play expected in the Bears’ favor, on about 53% of runs. Bears +0.20 per play so far (best in the NFL, 43 plays); Jets have allowed −0.28.
Quarterback out of the pocket0.07EPA per play expected in the Bears’ favor, on about 23% of dropbacks. Bears +0.45 per play so far (4th of 31, 32 plays); Jets have allowed −0.41.

Where the Jets should get stops

Runs off tackle0.06EPA per play expected in the Jets’ favor, on about 30% of runs. Bears −0.23 per play so far (24th of 32, 36 plays); Jets have allowed −0.63.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.00EPA per play expected in the Jets’ favor, on about 65% of dropbacks. Bears +0.08 per play so far (20th of 32, 58 plays); Jets have allowed −0.01.
Targets to tight ends0.00EPA per play expected in the Jets’ favor, on about 22% of throws. Bears +0.19 per play so far (20th of 32, 18 plays); Jets have allowed +0.04.

How the Jets defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Behind the line+0.06EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 17 plays. Opponents went there on 18% of throws (15th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Targets to running backs+0.33EPA allowed per play, 29th of 32, on 19 plays. Opponents went there on 22% of throws (7th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs inside (guard to guard)0.00EPA allowed per play, 25th of 32, on 30 plays. Opponents went there on 56% of runs (17th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Jets defenders to know

31
David Bailey
Getting home most
5 pressures, 2 sacks
44
Jamien Sherwood
Most yards allowed in coverage
11 of 14 for 138 yards
1
Azareye'h Thomas
Most missed tackles
4 missed, 13 made
Lineups and injuries

Jets

Offense

  1. QBGeno Smith
  2. WRGarrett Wilson
  3. LTOlu Fashanu
  4. LGJordan Meredith
  5. CJosh Myers
  6. RGJoe Tippmann
  7. RTArmand Membou
  8. TEKenyon Sadiq questionable
  9. RBBreece Hall out (next up: Braelon Allen)
  10. WRAdonai Mitchell out (next up: Jamaal Pritchett)
  11. WRIsaiah Williams

Defense

  1. LDEKingsley Enagbare questionable
  2. LDTT'Vondre Sweat
  3. RDTHarrison Phillips
  4. RDEWill McDonald IV
  5. WLBDemario Davis
  6. MLBJamien Sherwood
  7. SLBKiko Mauigoa out (next up: Trevin Wallace)
  8. LCBAzareye'h Thomas
  9. SSDane Belton
  10. FSMinkah Fitzpatrick
  11. RCBBrandon Stephens
  12. NBJarvis Brownlee Jr.

Out or doubtful: Dylan Parham (G, knee), Breece Hall (RB, quadricep), Adonai Mitchell (WR, finger), Francisco Mauigoa (LB, quadricep), Mason Taylor (TE, thumb)

Questionable: Kingsley Enagbare (DE, knee), Kenyon Sadiq (TE, back)

Bears

Offense

  1. QBCaleb Williams out (next up: Tyson Bagent)
  2. WRRome Odunze
  3. LTTheo Benedet
  4. LGJoe Thuney
  5. CGarrett Bradbury
  6. RGJonah Jackson
  7. RTDarnell Wright
  8. TEColston Loveland
  9. RBD'Andre Swift
  10. WRLuther Burden III
  11. WRKalif Raymond

Defense

  1. LDEMontez Sweat
  2. LDTGrady Jarrett
  3. RDTKentavius Street
  4. RDEJames Lynch
  5. WLBDevin Bush
  6. MLBT.J. Edwards
  7. SLBD'Marco Jackson
  8. LCBJaylon Johnson
  9. SSDillon Thieneman
  10. FSXavier Woods
  11. RCBTyrique Stevenson
  12. NBCam Lewis doubtful (next up: Malik Muhammad)

Out or doubtful: Cam Lewis (S, hip), Braxton Jones (T, knee), Kyler Gordon (CB, calf), Noah Sewell (LB, achilles), Caleb Williams (QB, hamstring), Shemar Turner (DE, knee)

Questionable: nobody listed

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

top fivetop thirdmiddlebottom third

All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.