Top Performer

Cowboys at Texans, Week 4

DAL

Cowboys

1-2, on the road

93Offense59Defense

HOU

Texans

0-3, at home

69Offense80Defense
Week 4Sun 1:00 PM ETHOU −3Total 48.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Brian Schottenheimer
Defense called by Christian Parker
Cowboys team sheet
Offense called by Nick Caley
Defense called by Matt Burke
Texans team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Against a four-man rush or fewer

Cowboys
+0.45

EPA per play, 2nd of 32, on 74 plays

Texans
77%

of dropbacks against them, 9th of 32; +0.15 allowed

What should carry: 0.08 EPA per play in the Cowboys’ favor, on about 72% of dropbacks.

Against the blitz

Texans
+0.42

EPA per play, 4th of 32, on 25 plays

Cowboys
27%

of dropbacks against them, 19th of 32; −0.12 allowed

What should carry: 0.04 EPA per play in the Texans’ favor, on about 28% of dropbacks.

When the Cowboys have the ball

Brian Schottenheimer calling plays against Matt Burke’s defense.

95DAL
PassingCowboys by 19Pass defense
76HOU
77DAL
RushingTexans by 13Run defense
90HOU
91DAL
ProtectionCowboys by 3Pass rush
88HOU
62DAL
Explosive playsTexans by 11Explosives allowed
73HOU
78DAL
Red zoneTexans by 18Red-zone defense
96HOU

How Brian Schottenheimer attacks

Brian Schottenheimer calls the plays for the Cowboys offense. The Cowboys target wide receivers on 71% of throws, 2nd most; the league average is 59%. They target tight ends on 16% of throws, 3rd fewest; the league average is 23%. They use pre-snap motion on 42% of runs, 3rd fewest; the league average is 61%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Cowboys offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.08 EPA per play is expected in the Cowboys' favor, on about 72% of dropbacks. The Cowboys have averaged +0.45 EPA per play there so far (2nd of 32, 74 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws outside the numbers, 0.05 EPA per play is expected in the Cowboys' favor, on about 79% of throws.

How the Texans defense has been beaten so far

Matt Burke calls the Texans defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Texans have allowed +0.71 EPA per play on throws from outside the pocket, last in the NFL, on 12 plays. They have allowed +1.02 EPA per play on throws of intermediate depth, 31st of 32, on 23 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Texans have an edge of their own. On play-action passes, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Texans' favor, on about 25% of dropbacks. The Texans have pressured the quarterback on 22% of dropbacks, 17th of 32. Will Anderson leads the Texans pass rush: 7 pressures, 4 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Against a four-man rush or fewerNot graded yet

The Cowboys will be at or above +0.10 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Cowboys throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Cowboys spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Texans position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards15th of 32intermediate, 10-1915th of 32short, 0-920th of 32behind the line78Safeties36% of targets75Linebackers14% of targets78Cornerbacks43% of targets85Edge rushers86Interior line

Dak Prescott with the ball

Time to throw2.69s0.15 seconds quicker than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 105 attempts.
Intended air yards7.9How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+5.9%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Brian Schottenheimer calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Targets wide receivers71%
of throws, 2nd mostleague 59%
Targets tight ends16%
of throws, 3rd fewestleague 23%
Motion before the run42%
of runs, 3rd fewestleague 61%
Throws between the numbers12%
of throws, 3rd fewestleague 21%
Runs to the edge12%
of runs, 4th fewestleague 21%

What Matt Burke calls

Blitzes23%
of dropbacks, 24th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run18%
of runs, 5th mostleague 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)28%
of runs, 2nd fewestleague 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Texans

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Josh Allen (BUF)3.11s2.91s in his other games. 29 attempts.
Week 2, Joe Burrow (CIN)2.48s2.56s in his other games. 31 attempts.
Week 3, Daniel Jones (IND)2.76s2.82s in his other games. 36 attempts.

Where the Cowboys should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Against a four-man rush or fewer0.08EPA per play expected in the Cowboys’ favor, on about 72% of dropbacks. Cowboys +0.45 per play so far (2nd of 32, 74 plays); Texans have allowed +0.15.
Outside the numbers0.05EPA per play expected in the Cowboys’ favor, on about 79% of throws. Cowboys +0.37 per play so far (5th of 32, 92 plays); Texans have allowed +0.24.
Targets to wide receivers0.03EPA per play expected in the Cowboys’ favor, on about 65% of throws. Cowboys +0.50 per play so far (8th of 32, 72 plays); Texans have allowed +0.47.
Passing off motion0.03EPA per play expected in the Cowboys’ favor, on about 60% of dropbacks. Cowboys +0.26 per play so far (10th of 32, 74 plays); Texans have allowed +0.19.

Where the Texans should get stops

Play-action0.02EPA per play expected in the Texans’ favor, on about 25% of dropbacks. Cowboys +0.01 per play so far (24th of 32, 29 plays); Texans have allowed −0.20.
Quarterback out of the pocket0.02EPA per play expected in the Texans’ favor, on about 21% of dropbacks. Cowboys −0.15 per play so far (20th of 31, 27 plays); Texans have allowed +0.71.
Runs off tackle0.01EPA per play expected in the Texans’ favor, on about 26% of runs. Cowboys −0.01 per play so far (9th of 32, 17 plays); Texans have allowed −0.19.

How the Texans defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Quarterback out of the pocket+0.71EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 12 plays. Opponents went there on 11% of dropbacks (2nd fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Intermediate (10-19)+1.02EPA allowed per play, 31st of 32, on 23 plays. Opponents went there on 24% of throws (13th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Deep (20+)+1.07EPA allowed per play, 24th of 27, on 13 plays. Opponents went there on 14% of throws (10th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Texans defenders to know

51
Will Anderson
Getting home most
7 pressures, 4 sacks
6
Reed Blankenship
Most yards allowed in coverage
15 of 21 for 231 yards
5
Jalen Pitre
Most missed tackles
2 missed, 12 made

When the Texans have the ball

Nick Caley calling plays against Christian Parker’s defense.

60DAL
Pass defenseTexans by 13Passing
73HOU
77DAL
Run defenseCowboys by 12Rushing
65HOU
66DAL
Pass rushTexans by 11Protection
77HOU
64DAL
Explosives allowedTexans by 14Explosive plays
78HOU
67DAL
Red-zone defenseCowboys by 3Red zone
64HOU

How Nick Caley attacks

Nick Caley calls the plays for the Texans offense. The Texans use pre-snap motion on 35% of runs, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 61%. They throw a screen on 3% of dropbacks, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 8%. They throw between the numbers on 29% of throws, 3rd most; the league average is 21%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Texans offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On dropbacks against the blitz, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Texans' favor, on about 28% of dropbacks. The Texans have averaged +0.42 EPA per play there so far (4th of 32, 25 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On runs up the middle, 0.04 EPA per play is expected in the Texans' favor, on about 21% of runs.

How the Cowboys defense has been beaten so far

Christian Parker calls the Cowboys defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Cowboys have allowed +0.89 EPA per play on throws to tight ends, last in the NFL, on 19 plays. They have allowed +0.63 EPA per play on dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, last in the NFL, on 71 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Cowboys have an edge of their own. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.05 EPA per play is expected in the Cowboys' favor, on about 72% of dropbacks. The Cowboys have pressured the quarterback on 21% of dropbacks, 23rd of 32. Quinnen Williams leads the Cowboys pass rush: 4 pressures, 0 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

One statement about this game, on the record before kickoff and graded after.

Against the blitzNot graded yet

The Texans will be at or above +0.01 EPA per play on this slice, the league average through last week. Fewer than 8 plays voids it. Written 2 hours before kickoff.

Where the Texans throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Texans spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Cowboys position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards11th of 32intermediate, 10-196th of 32short, 0-918th of 32behind the line67Safeties15% of targets70Linebackers29% of targets85Cornerbacks50% of targets64Edge rushers88Interior line

C.J. Stroud with the ball

Time to throw2.97s0.13 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 120 attempts.
Intended air yards9.3How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+3.0%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Nick Caley calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Motion before the run35%
of runs, fewest in the NFLleague 61%
Screens3%
of dropbacks, fewest in the NFLleague 8%
Throws between the numbers29%
of throws, 3rd mostleague 21%
Runs off tackle33%
of runs, 4th mostleague 24%
Drops back to pass67%
of snaps, 5th mostleague 60%

What Christian Parker calls

Blitzes27%
of dropbacks, 19th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run9%
of runs, 16th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)39%
of runs, 23rd of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Cowboys

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Jaxson Dart (NYG)2.64s29 attempts. No other games to compare.
Week 2, Jayden Daniels (WAS)2.91s3.41s in his other games. 17 attempts.
Week 2, Marcus Mariota (WAS)3.19s2.77s in his other games. 16 attempts.
Week 3, Lamar Jackson (BAL)3.01s3.19s in his other games. 20 attempts.

Where the Texans should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Against the blitz0.04EPA per play expected in the Texans’ favor, on about 28% of dropbacks. Texans +0.42 per play so far (4th of 32, 25 plays); Cowboys have allowed −0.12.
Runs up the middle0.04EPA per play expected in the Texans’ favor, on about 21% of runs. Texans +0.28 per play so far (3rd of 32, 10 plays); Cowboys have allowed −0.16.
Targets to running backs0.03EPA per play expected in the Texans’ favor, on about 16% of throws. Texans +0.20 per play so far (10th of 32, 15 plays); Cowboys have allowed +0.25.
Passing off motion0.00EPA per play expected in the Texans’ favor, on about 56% of dropbacks. Texans +0.13 per play so far (17th of 32, 74 plays); Cowboys have allowed +0.61.

Where the Cowboys should get stops

Against a four-man rush or fewer0.05EPA per play expected in the Cowboys’ favor, on about 72% of dropbacks. Texans −0.13 per play so far (27th of 32, 109 plays); Cowboys have allowed +0.63.
Outside the numbers0.03EPA per play expected in the Cowboys’ favor, on about 78% of throws. Texans +0.03 per play so far (23rd of 32, 85 plays); Cowboys have allowed +0.33.
Targets to wide receivers0.02EPA per play expected in the Cowboys’ favor, on about 58% of throws. Texans +0.10 per play so far (21st of 32, 62 plays); Cowboys have allowed +0.38.

How the Cowboys defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Targets to tight ends+0.89EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 19 plays. Opponents went there on 23% of throws (16th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Against a four-man rush or fewer+0.63EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 71 plays. Opponents went there on 73% of dropbacks (14th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Straight dropback+0.46EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 67 plays. Opponents went there on 69% of dropbacks (21st of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Cowboys defenders to know

92
Quinnen Williams
Getting home most
4 pressures, 0 sacks
53
Dee Winters
Most yards allowed in coverage
9 of 10 for 95 yards
6
Donovan Ezeiruaku
Most missed tackles
2 missed, 17 made
Lineups and injuries

Cowboys

Offense

  1. QBDak Prescott
  2. WRCeeDee Lamb
  3. LTTyler Guyton
  4. LGT.J. Bass
  5. CCooper Beebe
  6. RGTyler Booker
  7. RTTerence Steele
  8. TEJake Ferguson
  9. RBJavonte Williams
  10. FBHunter Luepke
  11. WRGeorge Pickens
  12. WRRyan Flournoy

Defense

  1. LDEQuinnen Williams
  2. NTOtito Ogbonnia
  3. RDEKenny Clark
  4. WLBRashan Gary
  5. LILBDeMarvion Overshown out (next up: Jaishawn Barham)
  6. RILBDee Winters
  7. SLBDonovan Ezeiruaku
  8. LCBJoey Porter Jr. (not on the current roster)
  9. SSMarkquese Bell
  10. FSMalik Hooker
  11. RCBDaRon Bland
  12. NBCaleb Downs

Out or doubtful: Cobie Durant (CB, hamstring), DeMarvion Overshown (LB, hamstring)

Questionable: nobody listed

Texans

Offense

  1. QBC.J. Stroud
  2. WRNico Collins
  3. LTAireontae Ersery
  4. LGKeylan Rutledge
  5. CEvan Brown
  6. RGWyatt Teller
  7. RTTrent Brown
  8. TEDalton Schultz
  9. RBDavid Montgomery
  10. WRXavier Hutchinson
  11. WRKayshon Boutte

Defense

  1. LDEWill Anderson Jr.
  2. LDTTommy Togiai
  3. RDTSheldon Rankins
  4. RDEDanielle Hunter
  5. WLBAiden Fisher
  6. MLBAzeez Al-Shaair out (next up: Kenneth Murray Jr.)
  7. SLBJake Hansen questionable
  8. LCBDerek Stingley Jr.
  9. SSReed Blankenship
  10. FSCalen Bullock
  11. RCBKamari Lassiter
  12. NBJalen Pitre

Out or doubtful: M.J. Stewart (S, knee), Azeez Al-Shaair (LB, groin)

Questionable: Jadeveon Clowney (DE, knee), Jake Hansen (LB, calf), Logan Hall (DE, knee), Ed Ingram (G, groin)

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

top fivetop thirdmiddlebottom third

All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.