Top Performer

Steelers at Browns, Week 4

PIT

Steelers

2-1, on the road

62Offense85Defense

CLE

Browns

2-1, at home

72Offense78Defense
Week 4Thu 8:15 PM ETPIT −2.5Total 38.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Mike McCarthy
Defense called by Patrick Graham
Steelers team sheet
Offense called by Todd Monken
Defense called by Mike Rutenberg
Browns team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Play-action

Steelers
+0.43

EPA per play, 3rd of 32, on 29 plays

Browns
27%

of dropbacks against them, 8th of 32; −0.30 allowed

What should carry: 0.06 EPA per play in the Steelers’ favor, on about 25% of dropbacks.

Passing off motion

Browns
+0.34

EPA per play, 4th of 32, on 49 plays

Steelers
63%

of dropbacks against them, 8th of 32; −0.02 allowed

What should carry: 0.05 EPA per play in the Browns’ favor, on about 52% of dropbacks.

When the Steelers have the ball

Mike McCarthy calling plays against Mike Rutenberg’s defense.

62PIT
PassingBrowns by 16Pass defense
78CLE
81PIT
RushingSteelers by 5Run defense
76CLE
71PIT
ProtectionBrowns by 1Pass rush
72CLE
73PIT
Explosive playsSteelers by 13Explosives allowed
60CLE
63PIT
Red zoneBrowns by 2Red-zone defense
65CLE

How Mike McCarthy attacks

Mike McCarthy calls the plays for the Steelers offense. The Steelers use pre-snap motion on 40% of dropbacks, 2nd fewest; the league average is 57%. They drop back to pass on 68% of snaps, 4th most; the league average is 60%. They throw deep on 18% of throws, 4th most; the league average is 12%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Steelers offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On play-action passes, 0.06 EPA per play is expected in the Steelers' favor, on about 25% of dropbacks. The Steelers have averaged +0.43 EPA per play there so far (3rd of 32, 29 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On dropbacks from under center, 0.03 EPA per play is expected in the Steelers' favor, on about 22% of dropbacks.

How the Browns defense has been beaten so far

Mike Rutenberg calls the Browns defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Browns have allowed +0.07 EPA per play on runs from under center, 30th of 32, on 49 plays. They have allowed +0.21 EPA per play on early-down dropbacks, 26th of 32, on 82 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Browns have an edge of their own. On throws outside the numbers, 0.08 EPA per play is expected in the Browns' favor, on about 80% of throws. The Browns have pressured the quarterback on 19% of dropbacks, 26th of 32. Mason Graham leads the Browns pass rush: 5 pressures, 4 sacks. All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

No call was made for the Steelers: this game had kicked off before the week’s calls were written.

Where the Steelers throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Steelers spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Browns position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards4th mostintermediate, 10-1924th of 32short, 0-921st of 32behind the line83Safeties25% of targets75Linebackers17% of targets80Cornerbacks53% of targets59Edge rushers79Interior line

Aaron Rodgers with the ball

Time to throw2.89s0.05 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 113 attempts.
Intended air yards8.2How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected−2.0%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Mike McCarthy calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Motion before the throw40%
of dropbacks, 2nd fewestleague 57%
Drops back to pass68%
of snaps, 4th mostleague 60%
Throws deep (20+)18%
of throws, 4th mostleague 12%
Runs from under center61%
of runs, 27th of 32league 69%
Runs to the edge29%
of runs, 6th of 32league 21%

What Mike Rutenberg calls

Blitzes20%
of dropbacks, 2nd fewestleague 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run4%
of runs, 25th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)65%
of runs, most in the NFLleague 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Browns

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Trevor Lawrence (JAX)2.98s2.76s in his other games. 23 attempts.
Week 2, Baker Mayfield (TB)2.99s2.99s in his other games. 34 attempts.
Week 3, Bryce Young (CAR)3.09s2.98s in his other games. 48 attempts.

Where the Steelers should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Play-action0.06EPA per play expected in the Steelers’ favor, on about 25% of dropbacks. Steelers +0.43 per play so far (3rd of 32, 29 plays); Browns have allowed −0.30.
Dropback from under center0.03EPA per play expected in the Steelers’ favor, on about 22% of dropbacks. Steelers +0.32 per play so far (7th of 32, 26 plays); Browns have allowed +0.02.
Runs off motion0.01EPA per play expected in the Steelers’ favor, on about 58% of runs. Steelers −0.03 per play so far (9th of 32, 34 plays); Browns have allowed −0.11.
Runs up the middle0.02EPA per play expected in the Steelers’ favor, on about 27% of runs. Steelers +0.08 per play so far (8th of 32, 18 plays); Browns have allowed −0.11.

Where the Browns should get stops

Outside the numbers0.08EPA per play expected in the Browns’ favor, on about 80% of throws. Steelers −0.23 per play so far (last in the NFL, 90 plays); Browns have allowed +0.05.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.06EPA per play expected in the Browns’ favor, on about 74% of dropbacks. Steelers −0.17 per play so far (28th of 32, 95 plays); Browns have allowed +0.03.
Passing off motion0.09EPA per play expected in the Browns’ favor, on about 47% of dropbacks. Steelers −0.32 per play so far (last in the NFL, 50 plays); Browns have allowed +0.20.

How the Browns defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Runs from under center+0.07EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 49 plays. Opponents went there on 66% of runs (24th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Early-down dropbacks+0.21EPA allowed per play, 26th of 32, on 82 plays. Opponents went there on 72% of dropbacks (13th of 32). Some of this carries
Passing off motion+0.20EPA allowed per play, 26th of 32, on 69 plays. Opponents went there on 61% of dropbacks (13th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Browns defenders to know

94
Mason Graham
Getting home most
5 pressures, 4 sacks
33
Ronnie Hickman
Most yards allowed in coverage
8 of 11 for 126 yards
7
Tyson Campbell
Most missed tackles
4 missed, 12 made

When the Browns have the ball

Todd Monken calling plays against Patrick Graham’s defense.

89PIT
Pass defenseSteelers by 9Passing
80CLE
72PIT
Run defenseSteelers by 12Rushing
60CLE
90PIT
Pass rushSteelers by 25Protection
65CLE
62PIT
Explosives allowedBrowns by 5Explosive plays
67CLE
82PIT
Red-zone defenseSteelers by 22Red zone
60CLE

How Todd Monken attacks

Todd Monken calls the plays for the Browns offense. The Browns line up under center on 50% of runs, 2nd fewest; the league average is 69%. They throw deep on 6% of throws, 4th fewest; the league average is 12%. They target running backs on 24% of throws, 5th most; the league average is 18%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Browns offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On passes after pre-snap motion, 0.05 EPA per play is expected in the Browns' favor, on about 52% of dropbacks. The Browns have averaged +0.34 EPA per play there so far (4th of 32, 49 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On throws to tight ends, 0.06 EPA per play is expected in the Browns' favor, on about 24% of throws.

How the Steelers defense has been beaten so far

Patrick Graham calls the Steelers defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Steelers have allowed +0.20 EPA per play on runs into a light box, 31st of 32, on 24 plays. They have allowed +0.20 EPA per play on runs from shotgun or pistol, 30th of 32, on 23 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Steelers have an edge of their own. On throws to wide receivers, 0.03 EPA per play is expected in the Steelers' favor, on about 55% of throws. The Steelers have pressured the quarterback on 24% of dropbacks, 12th of 32. T.J. Watt leads the Steelers pass rush: 6 pressures, 3.5 sacks. Elgton Jenkins is the Browns starting center, listed as out (concussion). Teven Jenkins is the Browns starting right guard, listed as out (back). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

No call was made for the Browns: this game had kicked off before the week’s calls were written.

Where the Browns throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Browns spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Steelers position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards4th fewestintermediate, 10-195th fewestshort, 0-911th of 32behind the line81Safeties16% of targets88Linebackers28% of targets61Cornerbacks52% of targets81Edge rushers84Interior line

Deshaun Watson with the ball

Time to throw2.91s0.07 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 82 attempts.
Intended air yards6.5How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected−3.8%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Todd Monken calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Runs from under center50%
of runs, 2nd fewestleague 69%
Throws deep (20+)6%
of throws, 4th fewestleague 12%
Targets running backs24%
of throws, 5th mostleague 18%
Screens12%
of dropbacks, 5th mostleague 8%
Throws intermediate (10-19)17%
of throws, 5th fewestleague 22%

What Patrick Graham calls

Blitzes27%
of dropbacks, 18th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run13%
of runs, 12th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)34%
of runs, 27th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Steelers

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Cooper Rush (ATL)2.65s2.19s in his other games. 22 attempts.
Week 2, Drake Maye (NE)2.94s3.08s in his other games. 22 attempts.
Week 3, Joe Burrow (CIN)2.58s2.51s in his other games. 37 attempts.

Where the Browns should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Passing off motion0.05EPA per play expected in the Browns’ favor, on about 52% of dropbacks. Browns +0.34 per play so far (4th of 32, 49 plays); Steelers have allowed −0.02.
Targets to tight ends0.06EPA per play expected in the Browns’ favor, on about 24% of throws. Browns +0.61 per play so far (3rd of 32, 21 plays); Steelers have allowed +0.18.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.01EPA per play expected in the Browns’ favor, on about 70% of dropbacks. Browns +0.17 per play so far (15th of 32, 65 plays); Steelers have allowed −0.13.
Runs off tackle0.01EPA per play expected in the Browns’ favor, on about 22% of runs. Browns −0.01 per play so far (10th of 32, 10 plays); Steelers have allowed −0.02.

Where the Steelers should get stops

Targets to wide receivers0.03EPA per play expected in the Steelers’ favor, on about 55% of throws. Browns +0.07 per play so far (26th of 32, 41 plays); Steelers have allowed +0.46.
Dropback from under center0.06EPA per play expected in the Steelers’ favor, on about 20% of dropbacks. Browns −0.29 per play so far (30th of 32, 20 plays); Steelers have allowed −0.56.
Runs up the middle0.03EPA per play expected in the Steelers’ favor, on about 30% of runs. Browns −0.39 per play so far (29th of 32, 18 plays); Steelers have allowed −0.15.

How the Steelers defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)+0.20EPA allowed per play, 31st of 32, on 24 plays. Opponents went there on 34% of runs (27th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs from shotgun or pistol+0.20EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 23 plays. Opponents went there on 32% of runs (11th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Targets to wide receivers+0.46EPA allowed per play, 27th of 32, on 44 plays. Opponents went there on 57% of throws (21st of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Steelers defenders to know

90
T.J. Watt
Getting home most
6 pressures, 3.5 sacks
22
Asante Samuel Jr.
Most yards allowed in coverage
8 of 16 for 220 yards
Lineups and injuries

Steelers

Offense

  1. QBAaron Rodgers
  2. WRDK Metcalf
  3. LTTroy Fautanu
  4. LGMason McCormick
  5. CZach Frazier
  6. RGBrock Hoffman
  7. RTMax Iheanachor
  8. TEDarnell Washington
  9. RBJaylen Warren
  10. FBRiley Nowakowski
  11. WRMichael Pittman Jr.
  12. WRRoman Wilson

Defense

  1. LDEDerrick Harmon
  2. NTKeeanu Benton
  3. RDECameron Heyward
  4. WLBT.J. Watt
  5. LILBPayton Wilson
  6. RILBPatrick Queen
  7. SLBAlex Highsmith
  8. LCBAsante Samuel Jr.
  9. SSRayshawn Jenkins
  10. FSJaquan Brisker
  11. RCBJamel Dean
  12. NBJalen Ramsey questionable

Out or doubtful: Rico Dowdle (RB, toe), Joey Porter Jr. (CB, not injury related - other)

Questionable: Jalen Ramsey (CB, wrist), Yahya Black (DT, not injury related - personal matter)

Browns

Offense

  1. QBDeshaun Watson
  2. WRDenzel Boston
  3. LTSpencer Fano
  4. LGZion Johnson
  5. CElgton Jenkins out (next up: Luke Wypler)
  6. RGTeven Jenkins out (next up: Austin Barber)
  7. RTTytus Howard
  8. TEHarold Fannin Jr.
  9. RBQuinshon Judkins
  10. FBMichael Burton
  11. WRKC Concepcion
  12. WRJerry Jeudy

Defense

  1. LDEIsaiah McGuire
  2. LDTMason Graham
  3. RDTMaliek Collins
  4. RDEJared Verse
  5. WLBEaston Mascarenas-Arnold
  6. MLBCarson Schwesinger
  7. SLBQuincy Williams
  8. LCBDenzel Ward
  9. SSGrant Delpit
  10. FSRonnie Hickman
  11. RCBTyson Campbell
  12. NBMyles Harden

Out or doubtful: Elgton Jenkins (C, concussion), Tylan Wallace (WR, knee), Teven Jenkins (G, back)

Questionable: nobody listed

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

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All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.