Top Performer

Colts at Commanders, Week 4

IND

Colts

1-2, on the road

74Offense60Defense

WAS

Commanders

1-2, at home

82Offense69Defense
Week 4Sun 9:30 AM ETIND −4.5Total 46.5Built from Weeks 1-3
Offense called by Shane Steichen
Defense called by Lou Anarumo
Colts team sheet
Offense called by David Blough
Defense called by Daronte Jones
Commanders team sheet

Where it tips

The biggest edge each offense carries into the game, after every number is cut down to the share of it that history says holds up.

Runs off motion

Colts
+0.11

EPA per play, 4th of 32, on 42 plays

Commanders
60%

of runs against them, 16th of 32; −0.44 allowed

What should carry: 0.02 EPA per play in the Colts’ favor, on about 57% of runs.

Against a four-man rush or fewer

Commanders
+0.19

EPA per play, 13th of 32, on 90 plays

Colts
77%

of dropbacks against them, 8th of 32; +0.15 allowed

What should carry: 0.02 EPA per play in the Commanders’ favor, on about 74% of dropbacks.

When the Colts have the ball

Shane Steichen calling plays against Daronte Jones’s defense.

63IND
PassingEvenPass defense
63WAS
95IND
RushingCommanders by 1Run defense
96WAS
87IND
ProtectionColts by 5Pass rush
82WAS
85IND
Explosive playsColts by 7Explosives allowed
78WAS
90IND
Red zoneColts by 16Red-zone defense
74WAS

How Shane Steichen attacks

Shane Steichen calls the plays for the Colts offense. The Colts run inside on 41% of runs, 3rd fewest; the league average is 55%. They use pre-snap motion on 69% of dropbacks, 4th most; the league average is 57%. They run off tackle on 33% of runs, 4th most; the league average is 24%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

This is where the Colts offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On runs after pre-snap motion, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Colts' favor, on about 57% of runs. The Colts have averaged +0.11 EPA per play there so far (4th of 32, 42 plays). EPA is expected points added. The sheet ranks one more edge behind it. On runs up the middle, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Colts' favor, on about 24% of runs.

How the Commanders defense has been beaten so far

Daronte Jones calls the Commanders defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Commanders have allowed +0.36 EPA per play on dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 30th of 32, on 62 plays. They have allowed +0.31 EPA per play on straight dropbacks, 30th of 32, on 74 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Commanders have an edge of their own. On throws outside the numbers, 0.06 EPA per play is expected in the Commanders' favor, on about 78% of throws. The Commanders have pressured the quarterback on 30% of dropbacks, 4th of 32. Odafe Oweh leads the Commanders pass rush: 7 pressures, 1 sacks. Keenan Allen is the Colts starting wide receiver, listed as questionable (not injury related - resting player). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

No call was made for the Colts: this game had kicked off before the week’s calls were written.

Where the Colts throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Colts spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Commanders position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards25th of 32intermediate, 10-1914th of 32short, 0-99th of 32behind the line68Safeties22% of targets81Linebackers22% of targets67Cornerbacks46% of targets89Edge rushers90Interior line

Daniel Jones with the ball

Time to throw2.80sAbout league average of 2.84, over 3 games and 98 attempts.
Intended air yards6.5How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+2.1%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What Shane Steichen calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Runs inside41%
of runs, 3rd fewestleague 55%
Motion before the throw69%
of dropbacks, 4th mostleague 57%
Runs off tackle33%
of runs, 4th mostleague 24%
Targets running backs13%
of throws, 4th fewestleague 18%
Play-action33%
of dropbacks, 5th mostleague 25%

What Daronte Jones calls

Blitzes47%
of dropbacks, 2nd mostleague 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run8%
of runs, 17th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)42%
of runs, 18th of 32league 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Commanders

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Jalen Hurts (PHI)3.26s3.25s in his other games. 25 attempts.
Week 2, Dak Prescott (DAL)2.66s2.71s in his other games. 31 attempts.
Week 3, Sam Darnold (SEA)3.29s45 attempts. No other games to compare.

Where the Colts should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Runs off motion0.02EPA per play expected in the Colts’ favor, on about 57% of runs. Colts +0.11 per play so far (4th of 32, 42 plays); Commanders have allowed −0.44.
Runs up the middle0.02EPA per play expected in the Colts’ favor, on about 24% of runs. Colts +0.15 per play so far (5th of 32, 16 plays); Commanders have allowed −0.23.
Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)0.00EPA per play expected in the Colts’ favor, on about 45% of runs. Colts −0.03 per play so far (13th of 32, 37 plays); Commanders have allowed −0.21.

Where the Commanders should get stops

Outside the numbers0.06EPA per play expected in the Commanders’ favor, on about 78% of throws. Colts −0.12 per play so far (29th of 32, 72 plays); Commanders have allowed +0.20.
Against a four-man rush or fewer0.07EPA per play expected in the Commanders’ favor, on about 62% of dropbacks. Colts −0.20 per play so far (30th of 32, 76 plays); Commanders have allowed +0.36.
Passing off motion0.03EPA per play expected in the Commanders’ favor, on about 64% of dropbacks. Colts −0.05 per play so far (25th of 32, 75 plays); Commanders have allowed +0.27.

How the Commanders defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Against a four-man rush or fewer+0.36EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 62 plays. Opponents went there on 53% of dropbacks (2nd fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Straight dropback+0.31EPA allowed per play, 30th of 32, on 74 plays. Opponents went there on 64% of dropbacks (27th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Between the numbers+0.68EPA allowed per play, 29th of 32, on 21 plays. Opponents went there on 21% of throws (17th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Commanders defenders to know

98
Odafe Oweh
Getting home most
7 pressures, 1 sacks
39
Jeremy Reaves
Most yards allowed in coverage
7 of 10 for 149 yards
2
Amik Robertson
Most missed tackles
4 missed, 17 made

When the Commanders have the ball

David Blough calling plays against Lou Anarumo’s defense.

Jayden Daniels is ruled out, and Marcus Mariota is expected to start. Every Commanders offensive number on this sheet was produced with Jayden Daniels playing, so read it as a description of that offense, not of this one.

64IND
Pass defenseCommanders by 20Passing
84WAS
60IND
Run defenseCommanders by 13Rushing
73WAS
70IND
Pass rushCommanders by 11Protection
81WAS
72IND
Explosives allowedColts by 4Explosive plays
68WAS
76IND
Red-zone defenseCommanders by 5Red zone
81WAS

How David Blough attacks

Jayden Daniels is ruled out. Marcus Mariota is next on the depth chart at quarterback. Every number below was produced with the listed starter playing, so it describes that offense and not this one. David Blough calls the plays for the Commanders offense. The Commanders line up under center on 49% of runs, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 69%. They target tight ends on 13% of throws, fewest in the NFL; the league average is 23%. These are play-calling habits, and history says habits like these tend to hold up over a season.

Where the edge is

These edges were measured with the quarterback who is now out. This is where the Commanders offense is expected to gain the most, after each number is cut to the share that history says holds up. On dropbacks when the defense does not blitz, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Commanders' favor, on about 74% of dropbacks. The Commanders have averaged +0.19 EPA per play there so far (13th of 32, 90 plays). EPA is expected points added.

How the Colts defense has been beaten so far

Lou Anarumo calls the Colts defense. This is a record of 3 games, not a forecast. The Colts have allowed +0.22 EPA per play on runs into a light box, last in the NFL, on 26 plays. They have allowed +0.13 EPA per play on early-down runs, last in the NFL, on 71 plays. History says results like these mostly do not carry, so the sheet gives them little or no weight.

What could kill the idea

The Colts have an edge of their own. On throws outside the numbers, 0.02 EPA per play is expected in the Colts' favor, on about 80% of throws. The Colts have pressured the quarterback on 16% of dropbacks, 30th of 32. DeForest Buckner leads the Colts pass rush: 4 pressures, 3 sacks. Jayden Daniels is the Commanders starting quarterback, listed as out (elbow). Terry McLaurin is the Commanders starting wide receiver, listed as questionable (hamstring). All of this rests on 3 games, which is a thin sample.

The call

No call was made for the Commanders: this game had kicked off before the week’s calls were written.

Where the Commanders throw, and who is there

Lighter turf and the percentages show how the Commanders spread their throws by depth. The chips rate the Colts position groups on 3 games, with the share of targets thrown at each.

deep, 20+ yards3rd mostintermediate, 10-1922nd of 32short, 0-916th of 32behind the line71Safeties22% of targets63Linebackers23% of targets65Cornerbacks46% of targets60Edge rushers86Interior line

Marcus Mariota with the ball

Time to throw2.91s0.07 seconds slower than the league average of 2.84, over 2 games and 47 attempts.
Intended air yards9.1How far downfield his average throw travels.
Completions over expected+1.8%His completion rate against what those throws complete at across the league.

What David Blough calls

The habits furthest from the rest of the league. The white tick is the league average.

Runs from under center49%
of runs, fewest in the NFLleague 69%
Targets tight ends13%
of throws, fewest in the NFLleague 23%
Targets wide receivers74%
of throws, most in the NFLleague 59%
Throws deep (20+)18%
of throws, 3rd mostleague 12%
Runs to the edge12%
of runs, 5th fewestleague 21%

What Lou Anarumo calls

Blitzes23%
of dropbacks, 25th of 32league 31%
Stacks the box (8+) against the run10%
of runs, 13th of 32league 10%
Plays a light box (6 or fewer)33%
of runs, 5th fewestleague 45%

How long quarterbacks have held the ball against the Colts

League average is 2.84 seconds. A defense that forces the ball out early shows up as quarterbacks throwing quicker than they do elsewhere.

Week 1, Lamar Jackson (BAL)3.30s3.06s in his other games. 25 attempts.
Week 2, Patrick Mahomes (KC)2.79s2.43s in his other games. 47 attempts.
Week 3, C.J. Stroud (HOU)3.22s2.90s in his other games. 27 attempts.

Where the Commanders should gain

Ranked by what is expected to carry into this game, not by the raw number.

Against a four-man rush or fewer0.02EPA per play expected in the Commanders’ favor, on about 74% of dropbacks. Commanders +0.19 per play so far (13th of 32, 90 plays); Colts have allowed +0.15.
Passing off motion0.02EPA per play expected in the Commanders’ favor, on about 58% of dropbacks. Commanders +0.22 per play so far (13th of 32, 68 plays); Colts have allowed +0.03.
Runs off tackle0.02EPA per play expected in the Commanders’ favor, on about 25% of runs. Commanders −0.23 per play so far (23rd of 32, 19 plays); Colts have allowed +0.08.
Runs off motion0.01EPA per play expected in the Commanders’ favor, on about 56% of runs. Commanders −0.05 per play so far (10th of 32, 41 plays); Colts have allowed +0.09.

Where the Colts should get stops

Outside the numbers0.02EPA per play expected in the Colts’ favor, on about 80% of throws. Commanders +0.06 per play so far (20th of 32, 84 plays); Colts have allowed +0.34.
Play-action0.03EPA per play expected in the Colts’ favor, on about 25% of dropbacks. Commanders −0.07 per play so far (26th of 32, 27 plays); Colts have allowed +0.30.
Deep (20+)0.05EPA per play expected in the Colts’ favor, on about 13% of throws. Commanders +0.03 per play so far (16th of 24, 18 plays); Colts have allowed +0.72.

How the Colts defense has been beaten so far

A record of 3 games, not a forecast. Bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true later in the season; for most of these, none.

Runs into a light box (6 or fewer)+0.22EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 26 plays. Opponents went there on 33% of runs (5th fewest). History says a result like this does not carry.
Early-down runs+0.13EPA allowed per play, last in the NFL, on 71 plays. Opponents went there on 91% of runs (10th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.
Runs left+0.30EPA allowed per play, 31st of 32, on 29 plays. Opponents went there on 37% of runs (14th of 32). History says a result like this does not carry.

Colts defenders to know

99
DeForest Buckner
Getting home most
4 pressures, 3 sacks
27
Justin Walley
Most yards allowed in coverage
14 of 17 for 192 yards
Lineups and injuries

Colts

Offense

  1. QBDaniel Jones
  2. WRJosh Downs
  3. LTBernhard Raimann
  4. LGQuenton Nelson
  5. CTanor Bortolini
  6. RGMatt Goncalves
  7. RTJalen Travis
  8. TETyler Warren
  9. RBJonathan Taylor
  10. WRKeenan Allen questionable
  11. WRDarius Slayton

Defense

  1. LDEArden Key
  2. LDTGrover Stewart
  3. RDTDeForest Buckner
  4. RDELaiatu Latu
  5. WLBJaylon Carlies
  6. MLBAkeem Davis-Gaither
  7. SLBBryce Boettcher
  8. LCBSauce Gardner
  9. SSA.J. Haulcy
  10. FSCam Bynum
  11. RCBCharvarius Ward
  12. NBJustin Walley

Out or doubtful: nobody listed

Questionable: Keenan Allen (WR, not injury related - resting player), Ashton Dulin (WR, ankle)

Commanders

Offense

  1. QBJayden Daniels out (next up: Marcus Mariota)
  2. WRTerry McLaurin questionable
  3. LTBrandon Coleman
  4. LGChris Paul
  5. CLucas Patrick
  6. RGNick Allegretti
  7. RTJosh Conerly Jr.
  8. TEChig Okonkwo
  9. RBJacory Croskey-Merritt
  10. WRStefon Diggs
  11. WRAntonio Williams

Defense

  1. LDETim Settle
  2. NTDaron Payne
  3. RDEJavon Kinlaw
  4. WLBOdafe Oweh
  5. LILBFrankie Luvu
  6. RILBSonny Styles
  7. SLBDorance Armstrong
  8. LCBRasul Douglas
  9. SSNick Cross out (next up: Tyler Owens)
  10. FSJeremy Reaves
  11. RCBFabian Moreau
  12. NBAmik Robertson

Out or doubtful: Sam Cosmi (G, concussion), Rachaad White (RB, shoulder), Nick Cross (S, illness), Jayden Daniels (QB, elbow)

Questionable: Terry McLaurin (WR, hamstring), Percy Butler (S, concussion)

First string from each club’s posted depth chart, with this week’s injury report laid over it. Game-day inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff and are not reflected here.

How to read this sheet

Ratings run from 59 to 99. A 99 is the best of the 32 teams on that unit’s numbers so far this season, a 59 the worst, in even steps. They describe 3 games. They are not a judgment of talent.

Position groups are rated on what their players were charted allowing or creating. Cornerbacks and safeties: yards per target 40%, passer rating allowed 40%, missed-tackle rate 20%. Linebackers: yards per target 35%, passer rating allowed 35%, missed-tackle rate 30%. Edge rushers: pressures per 100 snaps. Interior line: pressures per 100 snaps 80%, missed-tackle rate 20%.

The small bars beside a number show how much of it tends to still be true over the rest of a season, measured on 2022 through 2025. After 3 games a play-caller’s habits hold up well. What a defense has allowed mostly does not: of 36 ways of cutting a defense’s results, two showed any carry-over, and only those are allowed to count toward an edge.

There is no coverage panel. Nobody publishes which coverages a defense has played while the season is being played, and this sheet does not print a number it cannot source.

Numbers are not adjusted for opponents yet. Tested on four seasons, adjusting after three games made an offense’s numbers a worse guide to the rest of its year. It starts to help around Week 6.

Coverage ratings are a record, not a read. Over those four seasons, the yards a position group allowed per target after three games told you almost nothing about the rest of its year. Which group gets thrown at did carry, so each coverage group shows its share of targets. Pass-rush pressure carries a little. The working is on the what doesn’t work page.

EPA is expected points added: how much a play changed the points a team could expect to score on the drive.

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All Week 4 matchups. The calls on the record.